Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 23, 2024, 1:04 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Texas Longhorns	1.515 (10.6-1.4)
2	Alabama Crimson Tide	1.424 (10.0-2.0)
3	Tennessee Volunteers	1.416 (10.4-1.6)
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	1.404 (9.9-2.1)
5	Oregon Ducks	1.354 (9.8-2.2)
6	Georgia Bulldogs	1.349 (9.4-2.6)
7	Penn State Nittany Lions	1.178 (9.5-2.5)
8	Michigan Wolverines	1.162 (8.2-3.8)
9	Ole Miss Rebels	1.144 (10.0-2.0)
10	Miami Hurricanes	0.933 (10.1-1.9)
11	USC Trojans	0.916 (7.9-4.1)
12	Utah Utes	0.912 (9.0-3.0)
13	UCF Knights	0.876 (8.7-3.3)
14	Louisville Cardinals	0.854 (8.6-3.4)
15	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.845 (9.4-2.6)
16	BYU Cougars	0.843 (8.6-3.4)
17	Iowa State Cyclones	0.841 (8.6-3.4)
18	Missouri Tigers	0.790 (8.9-3.1)
19	Indiana Hoosiers	0.786 (8.4-3.6)
20	Washington Huskies	0.773 (7.0-5.0)
21	Oklahoma Sooners	0.773 (7.1-4.9)
22	Washington State Cougars	0.754 (9.9-2.1)
23	Illinois Fighting Illini	0.753 (7.9-4.1)
24	Kansas State Wildcats	0.723 (8.3-3.7)
25	LSU Tigers	0.714 (7.5-4.5)

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Texas Longhorns	0.00
2	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.44
3	Tennessee Volunteers	0.04
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.00
5	Oregon Ducks	0.47
6	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
7	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.16
8	Michigan Wolverines	0.86
9	Ole Miss Rebels	0.00
10	Miami Hurricanes	0.00
11	USC Trojans	0.80
12	Utah Utes	0.00
13	UCF Knights	2.06
14	Louisville Cardinals	0.00
15	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.57
16	BYU Cougars	0.00
17	Iowa State Cyclones	0.00
18	Missouri Tigers	-1.86
19	Indiana Hoosiers	0.00
20	Washington Huskies	4.78
21	Oklahoma Sooners	0.00
22	Washington State Cougars	0.00
23	Illinois Fighting Illini	-0.59
24	Kansas State Wildcats	0.00
25	LSU Tigers	-0.54

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Clemson Tigers	0.78
Oklahoma State Cowboys	0.49

Total Score: 14.45