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HoustonHorns Ballot for 2024 Week 4

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Sept. 16, 2024, 5:45 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Eye test + resume. Wins over ranked/P5 opponents matter. However, I am not weighing wins as heavily as losing or performing poorly against inferior competition because it is so early in the season it is hard to tell when a win is truly impressive (but easier to tell when a win/loss is bad).

Rank Team Reason
1 Texas Longhorns Looks to be the most complete team so far this year. Although no team is injury proof, Texas 2 deep has gotten plenty of work already. It looks as if much of the Texas 2s would start on 80% of the teams in the country. That depth will be valuable later in the season. There is some inertia here, as Texas was one of the best three teams in the country last season and was able to beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa, something UGA failed to do at a neutral site. I think this Texas team is improved from last year while I think the UGA team is just as good as last year's team. Therefore, Texas is my #1 independent of the performance at Kentucky.
2 Georgia Bulldogs It has been multiple years since UGA has lost a regular season game. I really seem Texas and UGA as 1A and 1B right now. However, Georgia doesn't look to be improved from last season. Their offense seems to be missing McConkey and Bowers more than many anticipated it would. This is still one of the best teams in the country, and they can beat anyone. However, I think so far Texas has looked immortal while UGA hasn't.
3 Tennessee Volunteers I think there slight drop off in quality after Texas and UGA. Teams 3-9 are all in the same group for me. They look elite, (with the exception of Ohio State) have P5 wins, and have dominated when they are supposed to dominate. Tennessee is above Ohio State right now because they look better against tougher competition. Although a ranked inw, NC State has looked relatively terrible in their other 2 games. Therefore, I don't put as much stock in that performance and am waiting to include Tennessee with Texas and UGA for now.
4 Ohio State Buckeyes Ohio State looks as good as ever. Jeremiah Smith is an elite talent and the RB room is one of the deepest in the country. Lack of meaningful competition, a QB who lost is job at Kansas St., and a lack of true elite threats besides smith are why I have Ohio St. behind Texas, UGA, and Tennessee.
5 Alabama Crimson Tide Alabama's offense has looked fantastic all year. They do not seem as disciplined as vintage Saban teams, but not any less disciplined than recent Saban teams. The noticeable difference so far is in the pass defense, statistically it is fine. They haven't played any QBs that can take advantage. However, in all three of their games there have been WRs running wide open in the secondary. Going to be interesting to see if Bama can adjust before they play a QB that can take advantage of that.
6 Ole Miss Rebels Ole Miss is similar to Tennessee. Statistically looks great, however no true stand out starts and lack of meaningful competition makes it tough to judge. There is some inertia here to as I don't trust Ole Miss. They don't look so great that they pop-off the paper, and usually start similarly before dropping a game to the first physical team the play. However, at this point I don't think it can be argued that Ole Miss is a top 10 team.
7 USC Trojans Lincoln Riley is always going to have an elite offense. Until this year he always had a statistically last defense. It *appears* that has changed. With the Riley offense, USC doesn't need an elite defense, just one that is good enough. Through 12 quarters of football it looks like that is the case this year. A Riley lead team with a competent defense is likely a top ten team.
8 Missouri Tigers Missouri has looked good so far. A win over a solid BC squad is more impressive to me than a win over Florida. Although the appeared fraudulent, they battled back and made plays when it counted. They have the talent of a top 10 team, and a win over a solid BC squad. I don't think they have looked as impressive as the teams ahead of them, nor do I think the BC win is as impressive.
9 Miami Hurricanes Miami has looked great. Like I said before teams 3-9 could really go in any order. However I think of the above teams Miami has either (a) a less impressive win or (b) doesn't look as good based on the 'eye test'.
10 Kansas State Wildcats I think there are three tiers right now. Texas/UGA, teams 3-9, and then everyone else. So far KSU appears to be the best of "everyone else." They have a better win than anyone ranked below them with the ranked win over a talented Arizona team. They also battled back to beat what appears to be a solid G5 team in Tulane. Additionally, their scare (singular) was against probably the best team of the all the teams ranked below them who also had scares. Therefore, they get the #10 spot.
11 Penn State Nittany Lions Penn State looked good against 1-2 WVU, but Bowling Green gave them a run for their money. I think they are a good team, but top 10 teams don't play Bowling Green close.
12 Utah Utes Utah looks like a top 10 teams when Cam Rising plays. However, when Rising isn't in the game they look like a mid-tier G5 school. They have looked impressive so far, and I am going to assume that Rising is healthy. However, they lack an impressive win to jump PSU and KSU.
13 Oregon Ducks Yes, Oregon looked great against Oregon St., however they looked very beatable against Idaho and Boise St. Two scares puts them behind Penn St and Utah. Special teams plays are fairly random. Although some skill is involved you cannot count on them to win you the game. Oregon needed two to beat Boise St at home. Additionally, their OL was pretty sketchy weeks 1 & 2. It looked improved last week. However, until last week is the rule and not the exception - I am not sold on Oregon.
14 Oklahoma State Cowboys This teams will go as far as Alan Bowman takes them. I'm not sure how far that is and they looked very questionable against a bad Arkansas team. That being said they are 3-0 and have a Doak Walker winner in the back field. That keeps them top 15ish for now.
15 Michigan Wolverines Michigan is not who they were last year. However, I also don't think they are as bad as Texas made them look. Although they only won by 10, their score this weekend was closer than the game really was as Michigan rotated in back ups midway though the 3rd Q. The ones were moving the ball at will and completely stuffing Arkansas St. All of Arkansas St points against Michigan's starters were a direct result of Davis Warren's 5 turnovers. I think Michigan is going to surprise some people, this is still a good football team.
16 Washington State Cougars Washington State is 3-0 with two wins over P5 opponents. That is enough to be a top 15ish team at this point.
17 UNLV Rebels UNLV is 3-0 with two wins over P5 opponents. They made quick work of Houston and beat Kansas. Being in the G5 shouldn't preclude someone from being ranked, especially when OU struggled with the same Houston team at home the next week.
18 Arizona State Sun Devils Another 3-0 team with wins over two P5 opponents. They also might have one of the most impressive G5 wins of the season @ Texas State.
19 Nebraska Cornhuskers Matt Rhule is a winner and Dylan (Mahomes) Raiola has looked elite. Nebraska has WRs who are good enough and get open, and a vastly improved defense. Nebraska reminded me of the Buccs with Jameis - Nebraska was an 8-10 win football team last season who turned the ball over so much they sucked. Although a rational fear for starting a true-freshman QB is that they would be turnover prone, that doesn't appear to be a problem for Raiola so far. They bullied CU at the LOS and so far look like one of the 20 best teams in the country.
20 Oklahoma Sooners Oklahoma is 3-0 and talented, but that is about all that is good you can say about the Sooners. The OL might be the worst in P5 and was allowing pressures to Temple. Credit where credit is due for a gritty win over a solid Tulane team. I can't justify not including the sooners as they are undefeated, however I can't justify ranking them any higher because I have no confidence in their OL's ability to create space and protect the QB.
21 Iowa State Cyclones Iowa State is 2-0 with a come-back win over what appears to be a solid Iowa squad. There aren't too many 2-0 teams with a ranked in, so they sneak in at #21 in my rankings.
22 Clemson Tigers Clemson did not look good against UGA. They then looked fantastic against App St. I am really not sure what to make of this. But, what I do know is Clemson is one of three schools that did not take anyone in the transfer portal last season. The other two require military service. Dabo is too good (as is UGA) to leave them unranked with the current resume, however, it is hard to imagine they are one of the 20 best teams when every other team is plugging holes with transfers while Clemson just lets the holes continue to drain.
23 Boston College Eagles BC dominated FSU at Doak Campbell. BC also dominated Mizzou for about a half. Eventually mistakes and Mizzou's superior talent caught up. However, I would expect the #23 team to lose a close game to the #8 team. Therefore, BC is not punished for their loss.
24 Northern Illinois Huskies NIU has maybe the best win of the season so far. I don't care if ND isn't any good, being able to go into Notre Dame stadium and upset the Irish at home is impressive - especially when the Irish were ranked #5. Not because ND was actually the 5th best team, but because that is intimidating and impressive for NIU to go in there and win.
25 Boise State Broncos Boise St was 2 special teams plays away from beating Oregon by multiple scores. They have a solid defense and probably the best RB in the nation.

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