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70stang Ballot for 2024 Week 4

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Sept. 15, 2024, 1:50 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Welcome back to the Report Card Poll! THIS IS NOT A PREDICTIVE POLL. The key tenet of this poll is that pre-season polls are bullshit, and poll inertia is extremely bullshit. I endeavor to eliminate as much poll inertia as possible. This poll is entirely resume based. It is not intended to be predictive in any way. We're here to generate a Report Card. What have you accomplished on the field so far this season? That's the only question that matters. The result is generated almost entirely algorithmically. I reserve human input strictly for scenarios where things like head-to-head may be important (last year with Texas and Alabama is a great example). All P5 teams are equal, all G5 teams are equal, and all FCS teams are equal. This is a black box methodology. Ranked wins don't matter at all until I start computing them around week 7, because this early in the season a "ranked win" means basically nothing. For example, FSU was top 10 to start the season. BC and GT got credit for beating a P5 team, but not a ranked team. Likewise, Memphis' win doesn't look worse than beating any other P5 due to FSU falling hard. WEEKLY NOTES: If you're here due to my first place vote for Pitt, welcome! This is always the hardest week for my algorithm, with so many teams playing a combo of 1 P5, 1 G5, and 1 FCS to start the season. In the next 2-3 weeks as we enter conference play, my rankings begin to make a lot more sense, but for now (as you'll see below), Pitt has proven more than anybody else this season on the field within the objective resume differentiation that my algorithm uses.

Rank Team Reason
1 Pittsburgh Panthers TIER 1 - 3-0 Teams with 2 P5 wins Pitt is the only member of this tier who hasn't played an FCS school, so they take the top spot by virtue of playing harder competition. Pitt is 3-0 with 2 P5 wins and 1 G5 win.
2 UNLV Rebels UNLV is 3-0 with 2 P5 wins away, as well as 1 FCS win. Winning their P5 games away places UNLV above UGA and Wazzu.
3 Georgia Bulldogs UGA is 3-0 with 2 P5 wins, one away and one neutral, as well as 1 FCS win. Playing the neutral site game places UGA juuuuust below UNLV.
4 Washington State Cougars Wazzu is 3-0 with 2 P5 wins, one neutral and one home, as well as 1 FCS win.
5 Texas Longhorns TIER 2 - 3-0 Teams with 1 P5 win and 2 G5 wins These teams are rewarded over the next tier for not having played an FCS school yet. Texas and ASU don't have one on the schedule, Alabama and OU play theirs in November. Texas takes the top spot in this tier with 1 P5 away win, and 2 G5 wins. They edge out Alabama for this slot due to playing a perceived stronger P5 team.
6 Alabama Crimson Tide Alabama is 3-0 with 1 P5 away win, and 2 G5 wins. Wisconsin < Michigan is the difference between Bama and Texas.
7 Arizona State Sun Devils ASU is 3-0 with 1 P5 win, and 2 G5 wins including one away. ASU takes this spot over OU due to actually having played an away game.
8 Oklahoma Sooners OU is 3-0 with 1 P5 win and 2 G5 wins. No away games places them last in this tier.
9 BYU Cougars TIER 3 - 3-0 Teams with 1 P5 win away, 1 G5 win away, and 1 FCS win This is where it starts getting fun. Most P5 teams to this point in the season have played some combination of 1 P5, 1 G5, and 1 FCS team. That's just how scheduling works out for the most part. Accordingly, these next couple tiers are a little bit of a crapshoot, because there isn't much differentiation for my algorithm. BYU is the only team in this tier. BYU is 3-0 with 1 P5 win away, 1 G5 win away, and 1 FCS win.
10 UCF Knights TIER 4 - 3-0 Teams with 1 P5 win away, 1 G5 win, and 1 FCS win. All of these teams have the same rough profile, and since there are so many in this tier I thought the best way to do it would be to order by strength of schedule played so far. UCF is 3-0 with 1 P5 win away, 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and a strength of played schedule of 22nd in the country (somehow)
11 Miami Hurricanes Miami is 3-0 with 1 P5 win away, 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and a strength of played schedule of 25th
12 Oregon Ducks Oregon is is 3-0 with 1 P5 win away, 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and a strength of played schedule of 26th
13 Memphis Tigers Memphis is 3-0 with 1 P5 win away, 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and a strength of played schedule of 40th
14 Ole Miss Rebels Ole Miss is 3-0 with 1 P5 win away, 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and a strength of played schedule of 50th
15 California Golden Bears Cal is 3-0 with 1 P5 win away, 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and a strength of played schedule of 54th
16 Michigan State Spartans Michigan State is 3-0 with 1 P5 win away, 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and a strength of played schedule of 60
17 North Carolina Tar Heels UNC is 3-0 with 1 P5 win away, 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and a strength of played schedule of 68th
18 Indiana Hoosiers Indiana is 3-0 with 1 P5 win away, 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and a strength of played schedule of 78th
19 Duke Blue Devils Duke is 3-0 with 1 P5 win away, 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and a strength of played schedule of 104th
20 Toledo Rockets Toledo is 3-0 with 1 P5 win away, 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and a strength of played schedule of 107th
21 Tennessee Volunteers TIER 5 - 3-0 Teams with 1 P5 neutral win, 1 G5 win, and 1 FCS win Tennessee is the only team in this tier. They are above the following tier due to playing their P5 game at a neutral site, and not at home. Tennessee is 3-0 with 1 P5 neutral win, 1 G5 win, and 1 FCS win.
22 Kansas State Wildcats TIER 6 - 3-0 Teams with 1 P5 win, 1 G5 away win, and 1 FCS win These teams have all played a G5 away game with their other games at home. Once again, strength of played schedule is used to differentiate these teams. Kansas State is 3-0 with 1 P5 win, 1 G5 away win, 1 FCS win, and a strength of played schedule of 23rd in the country.
23 Utah Utes Utah is 3-0 with 1 P5 win, 1 G5 away win, 1 FCS win, and a strength of played schedule of 38th
24 Oklahoma State Cowboys Oklahoma State is 3-0 with 1 P5 win, 1 G5 away win, 1 FCS win, and a strength of played schedule of 44th.
25 Missouri Tigers TIER 7 - 3-0 Teams with 1 P5 win, 1 G5 win, and 1 FCS win There are 3 teams in this tier, which is comprised of teams who have beaten 1 P5, 1 G5, and 1 FCS all at home. Mizzou takes the top spot due to strength of played schedule. Mizzou is 3-0 with 1 P5 win, 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and a strength of played schedule of 30th. RECEIVING VOTES: Illinois - 3-0 with 1 P5 win, 1 G5 win, and 1 FCS win, strength of played schedule of 63rd Nebrasks - 3-0 with 1 P5 win, 1 G5 win, and 1 FCS win, strength of played schedule of 97th

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