NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2024 Week 4
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Sept. 15, 2024, 9:19 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Texas Longhorns
|
1.387 (10.6-1.4) |
| 2 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
1.347 (10.0-2.0) |
| 3 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
1.280 (9.9-2.1) |
| 4 |
Oregon Ducks
|
1.227 (9.8-2.2) |
| 5 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
1.218 (9.3-2.7) |
| 6 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.194 (10.1-1.9) |
| 7 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
1.035 (10.0-2.0) |
| 8 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
1.029 (9.3-2.7) |
| 9 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.987 (7.9-4.1) |
| 10 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
0.987 (9.8-2.2) |
| 11 |
USC Trojans
|
0.892 (8.3-3.7) |
| 12 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.804 (9.5-2.5) |
| 13 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.797 (7.4-4.6) |
| 14 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.785 (9.0-3.0) |
| 15 |
UCF Knights
|
0.784 (9.0-3.0) |
| 16 |
Utah Utes
|
0.726 (8.4-3.6) |
| 17 |
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
0.699 (8.4-3.6) |
| 18 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.678 (9.3-2.7) |
| 19 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.666 (8.6-3.4) |
| 20 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.640 (8.1-3.9) |
| 21 |
Washington State Cougars
|
0.611 (9.8-2.2) |
| 22 |
Washington Huskies
|
0.603 (6.9-5.1) |
| 23 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
0.572 (7.7-4.3) |
| 24 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.572 (7.4-4.6) |
| 25 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.554 (8.4-3.6) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.39 |
| 3 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.73 |
| 5 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.00 |
| 7 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.02 |
| 9 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
2.46 |
| 10 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
0.11 |
| 11 |
USC Trojans
|
0.00 |
| 12 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
1.72 |
| 13 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.00 |
| 14 |
Missouri Tigers
|
-0.90 |
| 15 |
UCF Knights
|
1.23 |
| 16 |
Utah Utes
|
-0.14 |
| 17 |
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
-1.13 |
| 19 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.00 |
| 20 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.53 |
| 21 |
Washington State Cougars
|
0.00 |
| 22 |
Washington Huskies
|
3.08 |
| 23 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
0.00 |
| 24 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
Clemson Tigers
|
-0.02 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
0.81 |
Northern Illinois Huskies
|
0.18 |
Total Score: 13.44