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BeyondLiesTheWub Ballot for 2023 Week 10

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Oct. 29, 2023, 7:40 p.m.

Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Other notes for this week: Utah, USC, Wisconsin dropped out. Clemson and Maryland dropped out manually (ranked 19 and 24 according to model).

Rank Team Reason
1 Georgia Bulldogs +1
2 Michigan Wolverines -1
3 LSU Tigers no change, still overrated due to blowouts imo but I won't adjust until they struggle (let's see how they do against Bama)
4 Ohio State Buckeyes +1
5 Oregon Ducks +9, statement win against Utah
6 Texas Longhorns +2
7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish -1
8 Oklahoma Sooners -4
9 Tennessee Volunteers +2
10 Kansas State Wildcats +2
11 Florida State Seminoles +2, underrated by the model but most of their wins just haven't been impressive and I think it's picking up on their struggles against mediocre teams
12 Penn State Nittany Lions -5
13 Alabama Crimson Tide -3
14 Washington Huskies -5, definitely should be ranked higher though they've struggled against bad teams the last couple weeks and the model is penalizing them for it. If they keep winning I'll have to adjust them upwards.
15 Air Force Falcons +1
16 Ole Miss Rebels +11
17 Texas A&M Aggies -2
18 SMU Mustangs +16
19 Fresno State Bulldogs +1
20 Louisville Cardinals +9
21 Oregon State Beavers -2
22 North Carolina Tar Heels -4
23 Missouri Tigers +1
24 Arizona Wildcats +2, added to replace Clemson
25 UCLA Bruins +1, added to replace Maryland

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