Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Oct. 29, 2023, 7:40 p.m.
Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Other notes for this week: Utah, USC, Wisconsin dropped out. Clemson and Maryland dropped out manually (ranked 19 and 24 according to model).
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 |
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+1 |
2 |
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-1 |
3 |
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no change, still overrated due to blowouts imo but I won't adjust until they struggle (let's see how they do against Bama) |
4 |
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+1 |
5 |
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+9, statement win against Utah |
6 |
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+2 |
7 |
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-1 |
8 |
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-4 |
9 |
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+2 |
10 |
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+2 |
11 |
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+2, underrated by the model but most of their wins just haven't been impressive and I think it's picking up on their struggles against mediocre teams |
12 |
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-5 |
13 |
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-3 |
14 |
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-5, definitely should be ranked higher though they've struggled against bad teams the last couple weeks and the model is penalizing them for it. If they keep winning I'll have to adjust them upwards. |
15 |
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+1 |
16 |
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+11 |
17 |
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-2 |
18 |
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+16 |
19 |
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+1 |
20 |
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+9 |
21 |
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-2 |
22 |
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-4 |
23 |
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+1 |
24 |
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+2, added to replace Clemson |
25 |
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+1, added to replace Maryland |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 |
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0.00 |
2 |
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0.00 |
3 |
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2.75 |
4 |
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-0.46 |
5 |
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0.14 |
6 |
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0.00 |
7 |
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1.38 |
8 |
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0.00 |
9 |
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2.67 |
10 |
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2.16 |
11 |
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-4.42 |
12 |
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-0.22 |
13 |
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-1.65 |
14 |
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-3.95 |
15 |
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0.00 |
16 |
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-1.45 |
17 |
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8.03 |
18 |
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6.94 |
19 |
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4.28 |
20 |
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-1.19 |
21 |
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0.00 |
22 |
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2.63 |
23 |
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-2.18 |
24 |
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0.95 |
25 |
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-0.46 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
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0.48 |
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1.31 |
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0.73 |
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0.71 |
Total Score: 51.14