Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 30, 2023, 12:01 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Wins earn a team points. Losses lose points. How many points earned/lost is dependent on the quality of a team's opponent (both at the time you played them and currently). Opponent quality is determined by SP+ ranking. Margin of victory (MOV) is not factored into these rankings, not because I don't think it's a good indicator of a team's strength, but because, at the end of the season, the CFP committee looks more at who you beat and less about how you beat them.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 2 SP+ T-10 wins (Notre Dame, Penn State). |
2 | Florida State Seminoles | 2 SP+ T-25 wins (LSU, Clemson). Clemson has dropped 9 spots in SP+ since Florida State played them, but they haven't fallen enough to affect FSU's score for that game. |
3 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 3 SP+ T-25 wins (Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Tennessee). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Texas). |
4 | Washington Huskies | 1 SP+ T-10 win (Oregon). Why is Washington behind Alabama? Simply, Alabama has three quality wins and one "forgivable" loss - this is more impressive than Washington's lone quality win. |
5 | Georgia Bulldogs | T-5. 1 SP+ T-25 win. The Bulldogs are finally moving up the rankings as they start playing better teams on their schedule. Kentucky moved back into the SP+ T-25 (UGA regained their quality win). |
6 | Oklahoma Sooners | T-5. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Texas). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (Kansas). Unless Kansas can convince committee members that they are a quality team, I think this week's loss will keep OU out of the playoff even if they win out the rest of the way. Another year, another inexplicable loss. |
7 | Texas Longhorns | 1 SP+ T-10 win (Alabama). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Oklahoma). Texas loses it's SP+ T-10 loss and loses a half-point in the process, this, ironically, is the difference between OU and UT at this point in the season. |
8 | Ole Miss Rebels | 1 SP+ T-25 win (LSU). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Alabama). |
9 | Missouri Tigers | T-9. 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Kansas State, Kentucky). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (LSU). |
10 | Utah Utes | T-9. 2 SP+ T-25 wins (UCLA, USC). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Oregon). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Oregon State). |
11 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 1 SP+ T-25 win (USC). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Ohio State). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Louisville). |
12 | Michigan Wolverines | 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. As of the end of Week 9, undefeated Michigan is ranked behind five one-loss teams and two two-loss teams and we are still two weeks out from their first real test. |
13 | Oregon Ducks | 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Washington). Oregon is still needing a quality win. They missed their opportunity a couple of weeks ago but will have another chance in a couple of weeks when they face off against USC - a team that SP+ still says is a good team. |
14 | LSU Tigers | 1 SP+ T-25 win (Missouri). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Florida State). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Ole Miss). |
15 | Liberty Flames | 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. Liberty is your highest-ranked G5 team. They are undefeated against a schedule with an average opponent rank of 105.4. |
16 | Tennessee Volunteers | T-16. 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Texas A&M, Kentucky). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Alabama). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (Florida). |
17 | James Madison Dukes | T-16. 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. The Dukes are undefeated against a schedule with an average opponent rank of 79 plus an FCS team (sorry, but I'm not going to give any flowers for beating a cupcake team). |
18 | Louisville Cardinals | T-18. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Notre Dame). 1 FBS (below T-50) loss (Pittsburgh). |
19 | Air Force Falcons | T-18. 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. Air Force is undefeated against a schedule with an average opponent rank of 100.7 plus an FCS team. |
20 | Kansas Jayhawks | 1 SP+ T-25 win (Oklahoma). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Texas). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (Oklahoma State). The Jayhawks jumped up 16 spots this week to secure the #20 spot - the biggest move into the Top 25 by a team that was unranked the previous week. |
21 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Ohio State). Much like Oregon, Penn State lost it's only game against a quality opponent so far. They're best bet to jump into the Top 10 is to beat Michigan in a couple of weeks. That's a tall order, especially if you trust Billy Connelly's rankings. |
22 | Texas A&M Aggies | 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Alabama). 2 SP+ T-25 losses (Miami, Tennessee). Here's your highest-ranked three-loss team. |
23 | USC Trojans | 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Notre Dame). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (Utah). Utah is hovering on the edge of the SP+ Top 25, this week they fell below the threshold, meaning USC lost a T-25 loss and gained a T-50 loss, so instead of coming away with a -2 for their loss to Utah, they now have to deal with a -3.5. |
24 | Miami Hurricanes | T-24. 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Texas A&M, Clemson). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (North Carolina). 1 FBS (below T-50) loss (Georgia Tech). |
25 | Iowa Hawkeyes | T-24. 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Penn State). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (Minnesota). Iowa found its way back into the rankings after getting some help from Minnesota, which worked its way into the SP+ T-50. And for those of you wondering, Tulane just barely missed the cut this week. |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.29 |
2 | Florida State Seminoles | 0.43 |
3 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 2.19 |
4 | Washington Huskies | 0.00 |
5 | Georgia Bulldogs | 0.00 |
6 | Oklahoma Sooners | 0.70 |
7 | Texas Longhorns | 0.00 |
8 | Ole Miss Rebels | 0.73 |
9 | Missouri Tigers | 1.21 |
10 | Utah Utes | 2.24 |
11 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 0.02 |
12 | Michigan Wolverines | -3.70 |
13 | Oregon Ducks | -2.28 |
14 | LSU Tigers | 0.00 |
15 | Liberty Flames | 1.54 |
16 | Tennessee Volunteers | 0.65 |
17 | James Madison Dukes | 0.00 |
18 | Louisville Cardinals | -0.50 |
19 | Air Force Falcons | 0.00 |
20 | Kansas Jayhawks | 0.00 |
21 | Penn State Nittany Lions | -4.14 |
22 | Texas A&M Aggies | 3.03 |
23 | USC Trojans | 0.00 |
24 | Miami Hurricanes | 0.79 |
25 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 0.05 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
Oregon State Beavers | 1.59 |
UCLA Bruins | 0.82 |
Tulane Green Wave | 0.73 |
Kansas State Wildcats | 0.14 |
Total Score: 27.75