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CallingUagoatUgoat Ballot for 2023 Week 10

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 30, 2023, 12:01 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Wins earn a team points. Losses lose points. How many points earned/lost is dependent on the quality of a team's opponent (both at the time you played them and currently). Opponent quality is determined by SP+ ranking. Margin of victory (MOV) is not factored into these rankings, not because I don't think it's a good indicator of a team's strength, but because, at the end of the season, the CFP committee looks more at who you beat and less about how you beat them.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes 2 SP+ T-10 wins (Notre Dame, Penn State).
2 Florida State Seminoles 2 SP+ T-25 wins (LSU, Clemson). Clemson has dropped 9 spots in SP+ since Florida State played them, but they haven't fallen enough to affect FSU's score for that game.
3 Alabama Crimson Tide 3 SP+ T-25 wins (Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Tennessee). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Texas).
4 Washington Huskies 1 SP+ T-10 win (Oregon). Why is Washington behind Alabama? Simply, Alabama has three quality wins and one "forgivable" loss - this is more impressive than Washington's lone quality win.
5 Georgia Bulldogs T-5. 1 SP+ T-25 win. The Bulldogs are finally moving up the rankings as they start playing better teams on their schedule. Kentucky moved back into the SP+ T-25 (UGA regained their quality win).
6 Oklahoma Sooners T-5. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Texas). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (Kansas). Unless Kansas can convince committee members that they are a quality team, I think this week's loss will keep OU out of the playoff even if they win out the rest of the way. Another year, another inexplicable loss.
7 Texas Longhorns 1 SP+ T-10 win (Alabama). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Oklahoma). Texas loses it's SP+ T-10 loss and loses a half-point in the process, this, ironically, is the difference between OU and UT at this point in the season.
8 Ole Miss Rebels 1 SP+ T-25 win (LSU). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Alabama).
9 Missouri Tigers T-9. 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Kansas State, Kentucky). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (LSU).
10 Utah Utes T-9. 2 SP+ T-25 wins (UCLA, USC). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Oregon). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Oregon State).
11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1 SP+ T-25 win (USC). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Ohio State). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Louisville).
12 Michigan Wolverines 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. As of the end of Week 9, undefeated Michigan is ranked behind five one-loss teams and two two-loss teams and we are still two weeks out from their first real test.
13 Oregon Ducks 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Washington). Oregon is still needing a quality win. They missed their opportunity a couple of weeks ago but will have another chance in a couple of weeks when they face off against USC - a team that SP+ still says is a good team.
14 LSU Tigers 1 SP+ T-25 win (Missouri). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Florida State). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Ole Miss).
15 Liberty Flames 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. Liberty is your highest-ranked G5 team. They are undefeated against a schedule with an average opponent rank of 105.4.
16 Tennessee Volunteers T-16. 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Texas A&M, Kentucky). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Alabama). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (Florida).
17 James Madison Dukes T-16. 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. The Dukes are undefeated against a schedule with an average opponent rank of 79 plus an FCS team (sorry, but I'm not going to give any flowers for beating a cupcake team).
18 Louisville Cardinals T-18. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Notre Dame). 1 FBS (below T-50) loss (Pittsburgh).
19 Air Force Falcons T-18. 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. Air Force is undefeated against a schedule with an average opponent rank of 100.7 plus an FCS team.
20 Kansas Jayhawks 1 SP+ T-25 win (Oklahoma). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Texas). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (Oklahoma State). The Jayhawks jumped up 16 spots this week to secure the #20 spot - the biggest move into the Top 25 by a team that was unranked the previous week.
21 Penn State Nittany Lions 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Ohio State). Much like Oregon, Penn State lost it's only game against a quality opponent so far. They're best bet to jump into the Top 10 is to beat Michigan in a couple of weeks. That's a tall order, especially if you trust Billy Connelly's rankings.
22 Texas A&M Aggies 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Alabama). 2 SP+ T-25 losses (Miami, Tennessee). Here's your highest-ranked three-loss team.
23 USC Trojans 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Notre Dame). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (Utah). Utah is hovering on the edge of the SP+ Top 25, this week they fell below the threshold, meaning USC lost a T-25 loss and gained a T-50 loss, so instead of coming away with a -2 for their loss to Utah, they now have to deal with a -3.5.
24 Miami Hurricanes T-24. 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Texas A&M, Clemson). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (North Carolina). 1 FBS (below T-50) loss (Georgia Tech).
25 Iowa Hawkeyes T-24. 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Penn State). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (Minnesota). Iowa found its way back into the rankings after getting some help from Minnesota, which worked its way into the SP+ T-50. And for those of you wondering, Tulane just barely missed the cut this week.

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