NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2023 Week 10
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 29, 2023, 2:27 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game. NOTE: I am only including FBS teams in the rankings this season, since this methodology greatly rewards teams with good records in lower divisions. FCS teams will be ranked separately in my r/fcs ballot.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
5.13 (11.2-0.8) |
| 2 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
4.88 (10.9-1.1) |
| 3 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
4.69 (11.2-0.8) |
| 4 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
4.65 (11.4-0.6) |
| 5 |
Washington Huskies
|
4.50 (10.4-1.6) |
| 6 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
4.45 (10.0-2.0) |
| 7 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
4.37 (10.2-1.8) |
| 8 |
Oregon Ducks
|
4.35 (10.0-2.0) |
| 9 |
Utah Utes
|
4.16 (8.9-3.1) |
| 10 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
4.14 (9.5-2.5) |
| 11 |
LSU Tigers
|
4.06 (8.7-3.3) |
| 12 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
3.99 (8.6-3.4) |
| 13 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
3.98 (9.4-2.6) |
| 14 |
USC Trojans
|
3.98 (8.3-3.7) |
| 15 |
Texas Longhorns
|
3.96 (9.6-2.4) |
| 16 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
3.92 (8.9-3.1) |
| 17 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
3.82 (9.8-2.2) |
| 18 |
Missouri Tigers
|
3.78 (8.4-3.6) |
| 19 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
3.76 (9.8-2.2) |
| 20 |
James Madison Dukes
|
3.76 (10.8-1.2) |
| 21 |
UCLA Bruins
|
3.75 (8.5-3.5) |
| 22 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
3.67 (8.8-3.2) |
| 23 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
3.62 (8.9-3.1) |
| 24 |
Air Force Falcons
|
3.58 (11.0-1.0) |
| 25 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
3.58 (7.1-4.9) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.29 |
| 2 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Washington Huskies
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.90 |
| 7 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.06 |
| 8 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
Utah Utes
|
2.55 |
| 10 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.43 |
| 12 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
1.36 |
| 13 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.00 |
| 14 |
USC Trojans
|
2.79 |
| 15 |
Texas Longhorns
|
-2.95 |
| 16 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.65 |
| 17 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
-0.16 |
| 18 |
Missouri Tigers
|
-0.44 |
| 19 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
-2.80 |
| 20 |
James Madison Dukes
|
0.00 |
| 21 |
UCLA Bruins
|
0.00 |
| 22 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
3.05 |
| 23 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
0.00 |
| 24 |
Air Force Falcons
|
-0.99 |
| 25 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
0.00 |
Tulane Green Wave
Kansas Jayhawks