NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2022 Week 15 & Bowls
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Dec. 3, 2022, 11:25 p.m.
Overall Rationale: I project each team's record pre conference championships by a simple Kalman filter driven by win margins, and then find the maximum a posteriori estimate of their Bradley-Terry ratings (scaled to be like FPI). Each team starts with a prior of 0.5 win and 0.5 loss against a fictitious opponent of rating 0.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
Rating: 45.53 (Record: 13-0) |
| 2 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
42.61 (13-0) |
| 3 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
33.02 (11-1) |
| 4 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
30.12 (12-1) |
| 5 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
29.27 (10-2) |
| 6 |
Sacramento State Hornets
|
27.88 (12-0) |
| 7 |
Holy Cross Crusaders
|
27.20 (12-0) |
| 8 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
26.13 (10-2) |
| 9 |
USC Trojans
|
26.12 (11-2) |
| 10 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
26.04 (10-2) |
| 11 |
Clemson Tigers
|
24.05 (11-2) |
| 12 |
Oregon Ducks
|
23.90 (9-3) |
| 13 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
23.64 (10-3) |
| 14 |
Samford Bulldogs
|
23.59 (11-1) |
| 15 |
Utah Utes
|
23.53 (10-3) |
| 16 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
22.87 (9-3) |
| 17 |
Washington Huskies
|
22.25 (10-2) |
| 18 |
LSU Tigers
|
22.14 (9-4) |
| 19 |
Jackson State Tigers
|
21.90 (12-0) |
| 20 |
Montana State Bobcats
|
21.18 (11-1) |
| 21 |
UCLA Bruins
|
20.45 (9-3) |
| 22 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
19.92 (11-2) |
| 23 |
Mississippi State Bulldogs
|
18.97 (8-4) |
| 24 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
18.93 (9-3) |
| 25 |
Texas Longhorns
|
18.64 (8-4) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.18 |
| 4 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.03 |
| 6 |
Sacramento State Hornets
|
19.10 |
| 7 |
Holy Cross Crusaders
|
18.13 |
| 8 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
USC Trojans
|
0.00 |
| 10 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 12 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.89 |
| 13 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
-0.90 |
| 14 |
Samford Bulldogs
|
11.21 |
| 15 |
Utah Utes
|
-2.22 |
| 16 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
Washington Huskies
|
-1.03 |
| 18 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 19 |
Jackson State Tigers
|
6.22 |
| 20 |
Montana State Bobcats
|
5.23 |
| 21 |
UCLA Bruins
|
-0.22 |
| 22 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
-1.46 |
| 23 |
Mississippi State Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 24 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
-2.81 |
| 25 |
Texas Longhorns
|
-0.33 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
1.25 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
1.00 |
Troy Trojans
|
0.45 |
UTSA Roadrunners
|
0.49 |
Total Score: 73.13