Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Nov. 20, 2022, 1:22 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Week 13 notes: Deservedness keeps teams such as Ole Miss out when I would have them over some of the teams in this poll. General: 1st layer, computer portion: SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. 2nd layer, human portion: home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). 3rd layer, human portion: wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. 4th layer, computer portion: Deservedness = team cannot be ranked over another team with 2+ fewer losses (ex: 8-3 Utah can be ranked over 9-2 Washington, but 8-3 Utah cannot be ranked over 9-1 Coastal Carolina even if rankings have Utah over Coastal Carolina and/or I think Utah is better than Coastal Carolina).
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Georgia Bulldogs | Wonder if Georgia is starting to blend some LSU game-planning into the last couple weeks |
2 | Ohio State Buckeyes | Only reason Ohio State is above Michigan is that they’ve been ranked higher the whole season |
3 | Michigan Wolverines | Blake Corum injury might’ve actually put them below Ohio State if they weren’t already previously slated right below Ohio State |
4 | TCU Horned Frogs | Computer keeps waiting for them to falter, but they haven’t yet |
5 | Clemson Tigers | Computer portion has them lower, but I’m wondering if Notre Dame was just stylistically one of their worst match-ups. I think if the Pac-12 has Oregon/USC/Washington win out that one of them will hop over a Clemson that wins out |
6 | Oregon Ducks | Was considering putting them at #6 due to multiple losses even with the strong Utah win |
7 | USC Trojans | Computer portion has them lower, but I was very close to putting them at #5 |
8 | Tennessee Volunteers | Loss to South Carolina reshapes Tennessee, LSU, and Alabama |
9 | LSU Tigers | Affected by South Carolina win over Alabama |
10 | Alabama Crimson Tide | Affected by South Carolina win over Alabama |
11 | Washington Huskies | Loss to Arizona State is still the worst loss among the top five Pac-12 teams |
12 | Penn State Nittany Lions | Computer portion has them higher |
13 | North Carolina Tar Heels | If Coastal Carolina had two losses, this is where the 3 loss teams would start to be ranked |
14 | Tulane Green Wave | Not sure how much a win over Cincinnati would push them, but don’t think it would be a lot. The winner of that game needs to win again to cement the American’s spot in the Cotton Bowl |
15 | Cincinnati Bearcats | Not sure how much a win over Tulane would push them, but don’t think it would be a lot. The winner of that game needs to win again to cement the American’s spot in the Cotton Bowl |
16 | Troy Trojans | Thanks to UCF losing to Navy, the Sun Belt’s chances at leapfrogging over the American for the Cotton Bowl spot greatly improved. |
17 | South Alabama Jaguars | South Alabama will be Arkansas State fans this weekend |
18 | UTSA Roadrunners | UTSA is similar to Troy and Cincinnati in that they just grind out their opponents. They’ll need both the American and Sun Belt champs to have 2 and/or 3 losses |
19 | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | The one team holding up the rankings. I think they had a 50-60% chance to beat Virginia, but it’s one fewer chance at a loss. However, beating Virginia most likely wouldn’t bump them up over the other G5 teams here |
20 | Utah Utes | Deservedness keeping the 3-loss teams behind 1-loss Coastal Carolina. Losing by 3 on the road to the #6 team wouldn’t have dropped them if not for Deservedness |
21 | UCLA Bruins | Losing by 3 to the previous #10 team wouldn’t normally drop them too much |
22 | Kansas State Wildcats | A good team capitalizing on other teams losing |
23 | Florida State Seminoles | It’s about time FSU is ranked. They’ve been blocked by Deservedness for most of the season when they went up against a pre-struggling Clemson and fully healthy Wake Forest and NC State |
24 | Oregon State Beavers | Oregon State is super underrated |
25 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | Notre Dame has been playing much better since their rivalry loss to Stanford. Next 5 in alphabetical order: Illinois, Louisville, Ole Miss, Texas, and Washington State |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Georgia Bulldogs | 0.00 |
2 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.00 |
3 | Michigan Wolverines | 0.00 |
4 | TCU Horned Frogs | 0.00 |
5 | Clemson Tigers | 0.39 |
6 | Oregon Ducks | 1.31 |
7 | USC Trojans | 0.00 |
8 | Tennessee Volunteers | 0.00 |
9 | LSU Tigers | -0.24 |
10 | Alabama Crimson Tide | -0.12 |
11 | Washington Huskies | 0.00 |
12 | Penn State Nittany Lions | -0.19 |
13 | North Carolina Tar Heels | 0.91 |
14 | Tulane Green Wave | 1.06 |
15 | Cincinnati Bearcats | 1.46 |
16 | Troy Trojans | 3.38 |
17 | South Alabama Jaguars | 7.65 |
18 | UTSA Roadrunners | 2.18 |
19 | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | 0.00 |
20 | Utah Utes | -1.12 |
21 | UCLA Bruins | -0.27 |
22 | Kansas State Wildcats | -1.46 |
23 | Florida State Seminoles | -1.38 |
24 | Oregon State Beavers | -0.25 |
25 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | -2.73 |