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MADBuc49 Ballot for 2022 Week 13

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Nov. 20, 2022, 1:22 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Week 13 notes: Deservedness keeps teams such as Ole Miss out when I would have them over some of the teams in this poll. General: 1st layer, computer portion: SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. 2nd layer, human portion: home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). 3rd layer, human portion: wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. 4th layer, computer portion: Deservedness = team cannot be ranked over another team with 2+ fewer losses (ex: 8-3 Utah can be ranked over 9-2 Washington, but 8-3 Utah cannot be ranked over 9-1 Coastal Carolina even if rankings have Utah over Coastal Carolina and/or I think Utah is better than Coastal Carolina).

Rank Team Reason
1 Georgia Bulldogs Wonder if Georgia is starting to blend some LSU game-planning into the last couple weeks
2 Ohio State Buckeyes Only reason Ohio State is above Michigan is that they’ve been ranked higher the whole season
3 Michigan Wolverines Blake Corum injury might’ve actually put them below Ohio State if they weren’t already previously slated right below Ohio State
4 TCU Horned Frogs Computer keeps waiting for them to falter, but they haven’t yet
5 Clemson Tigers Computer portion has them lower, but I’m wondering if Notre Dame was just stylistically one of their worst match-ups. I think if the Pac-12 has Oregon/USC/Washington win out that one of them will hop over a Clemson that wins out
6 Oregon Ducks Was considering putting them at #6 due to multiple losses even with the strong Utah win
7 USC Trojans Computer portion has them lower, but I was very close to putting them at #5
8 Tennessee Volunteers Loss to South Carolina reshapes Tennessee, LSU, and Alabama
9 LSU Tigers Affected by South Carolina win over Alabama
10 Alabama Crimson Tide Affected by South Carolina win over Alabama
11 Washington Huskies Loss to Arizona State is still the worst loss among the top five Pac-12 teams
12 Penn State Nittany Lions Computer portion has them higher
13 North Carolina Tar Heels If Coastal Carolina had two losses, this is where the 3 loss teams would start to be ranked
14 Tulane Green Wave Not sure how much a win over Cincinnati would push them, but don’t think it would be a lot. The winner of that game needs to win again to cement the American’s spot in the Cotton Bowl
15 Cincinnati Bearcats Not sure how much a win over Tulane would push them, but don’t think it would be a lot. The winner of that game needs to win again to cement the American’s spot in the Cotton Bowl
16 Troy Trojans Thanks to UCF losing to Navy, the Sun Belt’s chances at leapfrogging over the American for the Cotton Bowl spot greatly improved.
17 South Alabama Jaguars South Alabama will be Arkansas State fans this weekend
18 UTSA Roadrunners UTSA is similar to Troy and Cincinnati in that they just grind out their opponents. They’ll need both the American and Sun Belt champs to have 2 and/or 3 losses
19 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers The one team holding up the rankings. I think they had a 50-60% chance to beat Virginia, but it’s one fewer chance at a loss. However, beating Virginia most likely wouldn’t bump them up over the other G5 teams here
20 Utah Utes Deservedness keeping the 3-loss teams behind 1-loss Coastal Carolina. Losing by 3 on the road to the #6 team wouldn’t have dropped them if not for Deservedness
21 UCLA Bruins Losing by 3 to the previous #10 team wouldn’t normally drop them too much
22 Kansas State Wildcats A good team capitalizing on other teams losing
23 Florida State Seminoles It’s about time FSU is ranked. They’ve been blocked by Deservedness for most of the season when they went up against a pre-struggling Clemson and fully healthy Wake Forest and NC State
24 Oregon State Beavers Oregon State is super underrated
25 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Notre Dame has been playing much better since their rivalry loss to Stanford. Next 5 in alphabetical order: Illinois, Louisville, Ole Miss, Texas, and Washington State

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