Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 20, 2022, 10:07 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Likelihood of wins+: A metric that rewards good performance against difficult opponents. If a team plays a nobody schedule, they don't deserve by default a high rank until they prove it on the field against good competition. It attempts to answer the question of how likely is it that an average team would have the same record or better. The values shown are that computed likelihood. This methodology is more volatile earlier in the season.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	TCU Horned Frogs	0.0000539117
2	Georgia Bulldogs	0.0000968991
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.000140823
4	Michigan Wolverines	0.000472867
5	LSU Tigers	0.00176341
6	Clemson Tigers	0.00375251
7	USC Trojans	0.00493895
8	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00510375
9	Tennessee Volunteers	0.0057713
10	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.0097643
11	Oregon Ducks	0.0150739
12	Kansas State Wildcats	0.0298875
13	Troy Trojans	0.0589034
14	Tulane Green Wave	0.0608022
15	Texas Longhorns	0.0667859
16	North Carolina Tar Heels	0.0695704
17	Utah Utes	0.0701296
18	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers	0.0841456
19	Florida State Seminoles	0.0854506
20	Oregon State Beavers	0.0945026
21	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.0952094
22	UTSA Roadrunners	0.0992607
23	Washington Huskies	0.116351
24	Oklahoma State Cowboys	0.116783
25	Cincinnati Bearcats	0.117805

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	TCU Horned Frogs	1.08
2	Georgia Bulldogs	-0.14
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	-0.05
4	Michigan Wolverines	-0.12
5	LSU Tigers	0.42
6	Clemson Tigers	0.00
7	USC Trojans	0.00
8	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
9	Tennessee Volunteers	0.00
10	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
11	Oregon Ducks	0.00
12	Kansas State Wildcats	0.18
13	Troy Trojans	4.82
14	Tulane Green Wave	1.06
15	Texas Longhorns	1.37
16	North Carolina Tar Heels	0.04
17	Utah Utes	-0.04
18	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers	0.24
19	Florida State Seminoles	-0.10
20	Oregon State Beavers	0.00
21	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-1.27
22	UTSA Roadrunners	0.32
23	Washington Huskies	-2.60
24	Oklahoma State Cowboys	1.16
25	Cincinnati Bearcats	-0.56

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
UCLA Bruins	1.85
Ole Miss Rebels	1.07

Total Score: 18.50