NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2022 Week 13
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Nov. 21, 2022, 2:08 p.m.
Overall Rationale: I project each team's record pre conference championships by a simple Kalman filter driven by win margins, and then find the maximum a posteriori estimate of their Bradley-Terry ratings (scaled to be like FPI). Each team starts with a prior of 0.5 win and 0.5 loss against a fictitious opponent of rating 0.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
Rating: 42.02 (Projected record: 11.9-0.1) |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
37.48 (11.6-0.4) |
| 3 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
35.02 (11.4-0.6) |
| 4 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
32.59 (11.7-0.3) |
| 5 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
26.97 (9.8-2.2) |
| 6 |
Holy Cross Crusaders
|
26.51 (11-0) |
| 7 |
Clemson Tigers
|
26.38 (10.6-1.4) |
| 8 |
Sacramento State Hornets
|
26.16 (11-0) |
| 9 |
USC Trojans
|
25.30 (10.5-1.5) |
| 10 |
LSU Tigers
|
25.11 (9.8-2.2) |
| 11 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
24.71 (9.7-2.3) |
| 12 |
Oregon Ducks
|
24.64 (9.5-2.5) |
| 13 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
24.55 (9.8-2.2) |
| 14 |
Samford Bulldogs
|
22.41 (10-1) |
| 15 |
Jackson State Tigers
|
21.21 (11-0) |
| 16 |
Utah Utes
|
20.05 (8.9-3.1) |
| 17 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
19.71 (8.5-3.5) |
| 18 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
19.65 (8.5-3.5) |
| 19 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
19.60 (8.8-3.2) |
| 20 |
Washington Huskies
|
19.47 (9.5-2.5) |
| 21 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
18.51 (8.4-3.6) |
| 22 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
18.49 (8.7-3.3) |
| 23 |
UCLA Bruins
|
18.20 (8.7-3.3) |
| 24 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
|
18.07 (9.5-2.5) |
| 25 |
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
|
17.48 (10-1) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.07 |
| 6 |
Holy Cross Crusaders
|
19.18 |
| 7 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Sacramento State Hornets
|
17.16 |
| 9 |
USC Trojans
|
-0.65 |
| 10 |
LSU Tigers
|
-0.78 |
| 11 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
-0.65 |
| 12 |
Oregon Ducks
|
-0.27 |
| 13 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
-0.64 |
| 14 |
Samford Bulldogs
|
11.21 |
| 15 |
Jackson State Tigers
|
10.20 |
| 16 |
Utah Utes
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
0.69 |
| 19 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
-0.51 |
| 20 |
Washington Huskies
|
-1.64 |
| 21 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 22 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
-1.06 |
| 23 |
UCLA Bruins
|
-0.91 |
| 24 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
|
-0.79 |
| 25 |
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
|
0.24 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Tulane Green Wave
|
1.64 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
0.91 |
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
|
0.34 |
UTSA Roadrunners
|
0.04 |
Total Score: 70.58