Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 13, 2022, 4:37 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Likelihood of wins+: A metric that rewards good performance against difficult opponents. If a team plays a nobody schedule, they don't deserve by default a high rank until they prove it on the field against good competition. It attempts to answer the question of how likely is it that an average team would have the same record or better. The values shown are that computed likelihood. This methodology is more volatile earlier in the season.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	TCU Horned Frogs	0.000142807
2	Georgia Bulldogs	0.000310548
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.000501595
4	Tennessee Volunteers	0.00118181
5	Michigan Wolverines	0.00244663
6	LSU Tigers	0.00437839
7	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.0066505
8	Clemson Tigers	0.00665816
9	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.0142206
10	North Carolina Tar Heels	0.0154967
11	USC Trojans	0.021849
12	UCF Knights	0.0399311
13	Troy Trojans	0.0498239
14	Utah Utes	0.0530403
15	Kansas State Wildcats	0.0535991
16	Oklahoma State Cowboys	0.0601008
17	Oregon Ducks	0.0658475
18	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers	0.0785147
19	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.108665
20	Tulane Green Wave	0.10942
21	Cincinnati Bearcats	0.109562
22	Ole Miss Rebels	0.11134
23	UTSA Roadrunners	0.120705
24	Florida State Seminoles	0.121244
25	UCLA Bruins	0.121752

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	TCU Horned Frogs	1.59
2	Georgia Bulldogs	-0.17
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.00
4	Tennessee Volunteers	0.14
5	Michigan Wolverines	-1.02
6	LSU Tigers	0.03
7	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.18
8	Clemson Tigers	0.00
9	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.19
10	North Carolina Tar Heels	0.00
11	USC Trojans	-0.88
12	UCF Knights	1.51
13	Troy Trojans	9.75
14	Utah Utes	-0.62
15	Kansas State Wildcats	0.16
16	Oklahoma State Cowboys	3.74
17	Oregon Ducks	-0.98
18	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers	0.35
19	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
20	Tulane Green Wave	0.00
21	Cincinnati Bearcats	0.03
22	Ole Miss Rebels	-1.86
23	UTSA Roadrunners	1.01
24	Florida State Seminoles	-0.62
25	UCLA Bruins	-2.81

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Washington Huskies	3.04
Oregon State Beavers	0.28

Total Score: 30.95