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dusklord1 Ballot for 2022 Week 12

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Nov. 13, 2022, 1:26 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Out: NC State Wolfpack (bad loss), Illinois Fighting Illini (back to back losses, no notable wins), Texas Longhorns (4 losses), Liberty Flames

Rank Team Reason
1 Georgia Bulldogs
2 Ohio State Buckeyes
3 Michigan Wolverines
4 TCU Horned Frogs I still expect TCU to drop a game somewhere, but I don't think there are enough games remaining for the loss to knock them out of contention unless it's during the CCG
5 Tennessee Volunteers
6 USC Trojans I'm surprised this clearly non-playoff contending USC team is technically the Pac 12's last hope at the playoffs. However, they will finish the season with back to back to back ranked teams, so they will have a chance to prove their legitimacy or more likely, play themselves out of contention.
7 Clemson Tigers I think Clemson still needs help to make the playoffs if they win out. They'll end up with 1-2 ranked regular season wins (all below #15) plus UNC. I'm not sure 12-1 with that slate of wins and an uncompetitive loss to Notre Dame compares favorably enough to 11-1 Tennessee for them to sneak into the 4th spot.
8 LSU Tigers I think Arkansas is a decent team that's had some bad luck with losses, rather than a bad team that LSU struggled with.
9 Oregon Ducks I checked collegefootballdata for the postgame win expectancy for the Washington. It was Oregon 89%. It's hard to say that Washington was the clearly better team, considering that Oregon basically lost because of a stupid mental mistake. That, plus h2h arguments made it hard for me to drop them much. However, 2 losses are 2 losses, and that's too much for the playoffs.
10 Alabama Crimson Tide
11 Utah Utes
12 Penn State Nittany Lions I think it's entirely possible Penn State is better than one or more of the 2 loss Pac 12 teams ahead of them, but they have beaten absolutely no one of note. They are clearly the #3 team in the Big 10 by eye test and record, but their best win is probably Purdue? They also lost soundly to both teams they played with a pulse. I can't justify them much higher than this.
13 North Carolina Tar Heels Drake Maye is a stud and has basically dragged this team kicking and screaming to 9-1. If they miraculously manage to go 12-1, they should get some consideration for a playoff spot, but I don't think their resume will compare favorably enough to Tennessee.
14 UCLA Bruins Very bad loss, and I'd like to drop them more. They do have a win over Utah and the same # of losses, so I can't really justify dropping them below Utah.
15 Washington Huskies Their win over Oregon statistically was a fluke, but it's still noted as 1-0 in the record books. Don't know if they have a chance at the CCG, tiebreaks are way too convoluted for me to think about.
16 Ole Miss Rebels They suffer from the same thing Penn State did. No wins of note, losses to both good teams they played, but by eye test a good team. Kiffin also seemed way too conservative at the end of the game, which was a shame, because they played well enough to beat Alabama.
17 UCF Knights
18 Tulane Green Wave Can't really drop them that much because of the Kansas State win and the fact the teams below them (except maybe Notre Dame and FSU) just aren't that good.
19 Kansas State Wildcats
20 Notre Dame Fighting Irish I fully expect them to struggle a bit with Boston College next week, then finally put the USC playoff dreams to bed by blowing them out.
21 Florida State Seminoles Syracuse is not a good football team at this point, but a blowout win is still good.
22 Oregon State Beavers Another good team that really doesn't have wins of note, but is probably good enough by the eye test and advanced metrics to be ranked.
23 Cincinnati Bearcats I don't want to rank them, but there are really slim pickings for the last couple of spots. It's either them, or some team that's had recent bad/multiple losses like Oklahoma State, NC State, or Illinois.
24 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers I don't want to rank them, but there are really slim pickings for the last couple of spots. It's either them, or some team that's had recent bad/multiple losses like Oklahoma State, NC State, or Illinois.
25 Duke Blue Devils I don't want to rank them, but there are really slim pickings for the last couple of spots. It's either them, or some team that's had recent bad/multiple losses like Oklahoma State, NC State, or Illinois.

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