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NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2021 Week 9

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 25, 2021, 7:33 p.m.

Overall Rationale: My poll predicts the outcome of my end-of-season poll, which would compute the maximum-likelihood ratings for the teams under the Bradley-Terry model (similar to Elo rankings). For the backward-looking step, all FBS teams are assumed to have an i.i.d. normally distributed ratings which is held constant the season, with a win % equal to 1/(1+10^(rating difference)/400). All recorded wins count equally, so data such as home field advantage, margin of victory, or any advanced stats are ignored. However, the predictive step uses ESPN's FPI with a uniform 3-point home field advantage to compute future win probabilities. As the season progresses, the ranking should transition from a power ranking into a ranking based only on the binary game results (W or L).

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