Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 25, 2021, 7:33 p.m.
Overall Rationale: My poll predicts the outcome of my end-of-season poll, which would compute the maximum-likelihood ratings for the teams under the Bradley-Terry model (similar to Elo rankings). For the backward-looking step, all FBS teams are assumed to have an i.i.d. normally distributed ratings which is held constant the season, with a win % equal to 1/(1+10^(rating difference)/400). All recorded wins count equally, so data such as home field advantage, margin of victory, or any advanced stats are ignored. However, the predictive step uses ESPN's FPI with a uniform 3-point home field advantage to compute future win probabilities. As the season progresses, the ranking should transition from a power ranking into a ranking based only on the binary game results (W or L).
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 |
![]() |
737 |
2 |
![]() |
684 |
3 |
![]() |
665 |
4 |
![]() |
620 |
5 |
![]() |
557 |
6 |
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556 |
7 |
![]() |
497 |
8 |
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474 |
9 |
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470 |
10 |
![]() |
466 |
11 |
![]() |
461 |
12 |
![]() |
457 |
13 |
![]() |
449 |
14 |
![]() |
400 |
15 |
![]() |
399 |
16 |
![]() |
390 |
17 |
![]() |
382 |
18 |
![]() |
370 |
19 |
![]() |
363 |
20 |
![]() |
359 |
21 |
![]() |
355 |
22 |
![]() |
338 |
23 |
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334 |
24 |
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323 |
25 |
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319 |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 |
![]() |
0.00 |
2 |
![]() |
0.44 |
3 |
![]() |
0.00 |
4 |
![]() |
0.00 |
5 |
![]() |
0.00 |
6 |
![]() |
0.00 |
7 |
![]() |
0.00 |
8 |
![]() |
1.28 |
9 |
![]() |
0.23 |
10 |
![]() |
0.00 |
11 |
![]() |
1.30 |
12 |
![]() |
0.67 |
13 |
![]() |
0.00 |
14 |
![]() |
-0.19 |
15 |
![]() |
0.94 |
16 |
![]() |
0.61 |
17 |
![]() |
-0.46 |
18 |
![]() |
0.00 |
19 |
![]() |
-1.48 |
20 |
![]() |
0.00 |
21 |
![]() |
-0.36 |
22 |
![]() |
-0.93 |
23 |
![]() |
2.04 |
24 |
![]() |
0.64 |
25 |
![]() |
0.00 |