Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 25, 2021, 7:33 p.m.
Overall Rationale: My poll predicts the outcome of my end-of-season poll, which would compute the maximum-likelihood ratings for the teams under the Bradley-Terry model (similar to Elo rankings). For the backward-looking step, all FBS teams are assumed to have an i.i.d. normally distributed ratings which is held constant the season, with a win % equal to 1/(1+10^(rating difference)/400). All recorded wins count equally, so data such as home field advantage, margin of victory, or any advanced stats are ignored. However, the predictive step uses ESPN's FPI with a uniform 3-point home field advantage to compute future win probabilities. As the season progresses, the ranking should transition from a power ranking into a ranking based only on the binary game results (W or L).
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Georgia Bulldogs | 737 |
2 | Oklahoma Sooners | 684 |
3 | Cincinnati Bearcats | 665 |
4 | Michigan Wolverines | 620 |
5 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 557 |
6 | Michigan State Spartans | 556 |
7 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 497 |
8 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | 474 |
9 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 470 |
10 | Ole Miss Rebels | 466 |
11 | UTSA Roadrunners | 461 |
12 | Baylor Bears | 457 |
13 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 449 |
14 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 400 |
15 | Iowa State Cyclones | 399 |
16 | Auburn Tigers | 390 |
17 | Kentucky Wildcats | 382 |
18 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 370 |
19 | Oregon Ducks | 363 |
20 | San Diego State Aztecs | 359 |
21 | Texas A&M Aggies | 355 |
22 | Pittsburgh Panthers | 338 |
23 | Texas Longhorns | 334 |
24 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 323 |
25 | Virginia Cavaliers | 319 |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Georgia Bulldogs | 0.00 |
2 | Oklahoma Sooners | 0.44 |
3 | Cincinnati Bearcats | 0.00 |
4 | Michigan Wolverines | 0.00 |
5 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.00 |
6 | Michigan State Spartans | 0.00 |
7 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.00 |
8 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | 1.28 |
9 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 0.23 |
10 | Ole Miss Rebels | 0.00 |
11 | UTSA Roadrunners | 1.30 |
12 | Baylor Bears | 0.67 |
13 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 0.00 |
14 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | -0.19 |
15 | Iowa State Cyclones | 0.94 |
16 | Auburn Tigers | 0.61 |
17 | Kentucky Wildcats | -0.46 |
18 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 0.00 |
19 | Oregon Ducks | -1.48 |
20 | San Diego State Aztecs | 0.00 |
21 | Texas A&M Aggies | -0.36 |
22 | Pittsburgh Panthers | -0.93 |
23 | Texas Longhorns | 2.04 |
24 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 0.64 |
25 | Virginia Cavaliers | 0.00 |