The-Gothic-Castle Ballot for 2021 Week 6
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 3, 2021, 9:37 a.m.
Overall Rationale: The fundamental question at play is “how many games would each team win if they had to play every other team at home and on the road?”I use a logistic regression usingOffensive and defensive performanceAn in-house Elo calculation (which resets each season) andA metric for team strength which is derived from(1) roster strength from past season performance,(2) recruiting ratings, and(3) current season record.The logistic regression gives a probability for each team to win at home and on the road against every other team, and the ranking is the sum of those probabilities (expected wins).
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.85 |
| 4 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.48 |
| 6 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.00 |
| 7 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Texas Longhorns
|
1.88 |
| 9 |
Kentucky Wildcats
|
0.35 |
| 10 |
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
|
0.54 |
| 12 |
Michigan State Spartans
|
0.00 |
| 13 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
-2.81 |
| 14 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.00 |
| 15 |
Auburn Tigers
|
0.64 |
| 16 |
BYU Cougars
|
-0.63 |
| 17 |
Arkansas Razorbacks
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
SMU Mustangs
|
0.18 |
| 19 |
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
|
0.00 |
| 20 |
UTSA Roadrunners
|
0.87 |
| 21 |
Arizona State Sun Devils
|
0.00 |
| 22 |
Oregon Ducks
|
-1.42 |
| 23 |
NC State Wolfpack
|
0.00 |
| 24 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
Florida Gators
|
-0.03 |
Ole Miss Rebels
San Diego State Aztecs