Ballot Type: Human
Submitted: Oct. 3, 2021, 12:03 p.m.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | Yup. |
2 | Penn State Nittany Lions | Yup (x2). My clear second-best team in the country, with no apologies to anyone. |
3 | Georgia Bulldogs | I still have major reservations about Georgia, but there are not a ton of teams to put up here. This is not a healthy quarterback situation, but they should be able to win all their games through brute force and good scheme.  |
4 | Cincinnati Bearcats | All right, I'm a believer. Go get that bid. |
5 | Michigan Wolverines | I'm hopping on the Michigan wagon. They have handled four at least decent teams and never really threatened to lose. Passing game not great, but the only teams in the country that I don't think they could run the ball on are Georgia and Penn State, so it probably won't matter. |
6 | Oregon Ducks | Some phantom penalties led to this loss, but the Ducks were outplayed in stretches as well, and their defense has some exploitable weaknesses. I still think they are a playoff contender, but I don't mind saying they no longer control their own destiny. |
7 | Ohio State Buckeyes | Ohio State's only loss is to a team substantially better than the four teams that have hung around with Oklahoma. It's early in the season to talk about body of work, but tOSU is more talented and Oklahoma has regressed from a year ago. |
8 | Oklahoma Sooners | In four games against FBS opposition, Oklahoma's average margin of victory is...five points. I don't think this is a playoff team. I would not take them over any present title contender on a neutral field. |
9 | Iowa Hawkeyes | I'm sorry, but returning interceptions for touchdowns is not a repeatable skill. |
10 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | Defense: Stone cold. Offense: MIA. |
11 | Arkansas Razorbacks | |
12 | Pittsburgh Panthers | Pitt is the FPI #10, and...I actually totally get it. This is a top-35 team on both sides of the ball, and their wins against Tennessee and GT are probably going to age very well. |
13 | Texas Longhorns | |
14 | Arizona State Sun Devils | ASU has an extra gear that's kinda scary when they hit it. They are a projected 9-3 team but they have 11-1 upside against this schedule...or the bottom could drop out in Corvallis, as it often does. |
15 | Florida Gators | Florida fans who want to fire Mullen: You haven't beaten Bama since Urban left, and you have a coach who took Bama to the wire twice in a row. Think about how vanishingly rare that is and get some perspective. If it helps, look at Miami and FSU for what happens when you lose perspective as a program. |
16 | BYU Cougars | The advanced metrics see BYU's win over Arizona State as a bit of an anomaly, and I think I agree. They won turnovers 4-2, and they were outgained overall and per-play. This is a good team, but they aren't better than ASU and I think they are likely to drop a couple down the stretch. |
17 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | |
18 | Michigan State Spartans | FPI likes Sparty -- I'm skeptical because I think FPI overrates Miami and Nebraska, but there's something to be said for consistency. |
19 | NC State Wolfpack | |
20 | San Diego State Aztecs | No one is talking about San Diego State as a G5 bid contender because of Cincinnati's start, but their three hardest remaining games (Fresno, Nevada, Boise State) come at home and they are FPI favorites from here on. |
21 | Oregon State Beavers | Oregon State is favored in their next five games by FPI. Legitimate division contender. |
22 | Kentucky Wildcats | Kentucky is unspectacular but very balanced. Should go at least 8-4. |
23 | Ole Miss Rebels | I was laughed out of the room for saying Ole Miss wouldn't cover a three-score spread. I rest my case. |
24 | Kansas State Wildcats | I think Stanford is a good team and they're my first team out of the rankings. Also, I think KSU really should have beaten Oklahoma, but who knows what that's worth given OU's "playing to the opponent" quirks. Still in on the Cats for now. |
25 | Clemson Tigers | I don't know how generous I should be to Clemson because of the injury bug, but I just don't think they can even win the ACC anymore. |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.00 |
2 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 0.62 |
3 | Georgia Bulldogs | -0.60 |
4 | Cincinnati Bearcats | 0.00 |
5 | Michigan Wolverines | 0.18 |
6 | Oregon Ducks | 0.52 |
7 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.03 |
8 | Oklahoma Sooners | 0.00 |
9 | Iowa Hawkeyes | -2.49 |
10 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | 0.00 |
11 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 0.34 |
12 | Pittsburgh Panthers | 4.71 |
13 | Texas Longhorns | 0.78 |
14 | Arizona State Sun Devils | 1.70 |
15 | Florida Gators | 0.81 |
16 | BYU Cougars | -0.63 |
17 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 0.00 |
18 | Michigan State Spartans | -1.03 |
19 | NC State Wolfpack | 0.49 |
20 | San Diego State Aztecs | 0.40 |
21 | Oregon State Beavers | 2.19 |
22 | Kentucky Wildcats | -1.36 |
23 | Ole Miss Rebels | -0.34 |
24 | Kansas State Wildcats | 1.08 |
25 | Clemson Tigers | 0.00 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | 1.57 |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 1.67 |
Auburn Tigers | 0.81 |
SMU Mustangs | 0.43 |
Total Score: 24.76