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bakonydraco Ballot for 2020 Week ✋✋✋

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Dec. 6, 2020, 11:48 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Similar methodology as last week, full table here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FoA3qrDX7UUKU7jFy_F_q-ESiPxHm9sdbvBvV5k6HoM/edit?usp=sharing. One substantive update is that I tweaked the hyperparameters. Previously the margin of victory was capped at having a positive effect at 14 points. After conversation with other pollsters and particularly https://www.bcftoys.com/massey, I've raised the threshold to 28, and reduced the effect of smaller wins. A comparison of the week 13 polls with a threshold of 28 and 14 is in 2 different tabs in the sheet, but I'll probably stick with 28 going forward. The previous years are still shown with a threshold of 14 but may be updated later. All 9 undefeated teams and both 9-1 teams are included, which allowed #47 Colorado, #44 San José State, #33 Louisiana, and #28 Liberty in at the expense of #21 Tulane, #23 Wake Forest, #24 Auburn, and #25 Northwestern. Other teams I didn't rank that might be ranked include #27 Tulsa and #50 NC State. Other teams I ranked that might not be include #16 Wisconsin.

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