Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Dec. 6, 2020, 11:48 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Similar methodology as last week, full table here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FoA3qrDX7UUKU7jFy_F_q-ESiPxHm9sdbvBvV5k6HoM/edit?usp=sharing. One substantive update is that I tweaked the hyperparameters. Previously the margin of victory was capped at having a positive effect at 14 points. After conversation with other pollsters and particularly https://www.bcftoys.com/massey, I've raised the threshold to 28, and reduced the effect of smaller wins. A comparison of the week 13 polls with a threshold of 28 and 14 is in 2 different tabs in the sheet, but I'll probably stick with 28 going forward. The previous years are still shown with a threshold of 14 but may be updated later. All 9 undefeated teams and both 9-1 teams are included, which allowed #47 Colorado, #44 San José State, #33 Louisiana, and #28 Liberty in at the expense of #21 Tulane, #23 Wake Forest, #24 Auburn, and #25 Northwestern. Other teams I didn't rank that might be ranked include #27 Tulsa and #50 NC State. Other teams I ranked that might not be include #16 Wisconsin.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
88.59 |
| 2 |
Clemson Tigers
|
83.44 |
| 3 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
81.21 |
| 4 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
80.82 |
| 5 |
Florida Gators
|
80.47 |
| 6 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
80.38 |
| 7 |
BYU Cougars
|
77.05 |
| 8 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
77.01 |
| 9 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
76.62 |
| 10 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
76.62 |
| 11 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
76.45 |
| 12 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
76.43 |
| 13 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
75.84 |
| 14 |
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
|
75.13 |
| 15 |
UCF Knights
|
74.75 |
| 16 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
74.24 |
| 17 |
Texas Longhorns
|
73.51 |
| 18 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
|
73.22 |
| 19 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
72.86 |
| 20 |
USC Trojans
|
72.48 |
| 21 |
Buffalo Bulls
|
71.52 (#22) |
| 22 |
Liberty Flames
|
70.34 (#28) |
| 23 |
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
|
69.57 (#33) |
| 24 |
San José State Spartans
|
67.81 (#44) |
| 25 |
Colorado Buffaloes
|
67.40 (#47) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.54 |
| 3 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
0.05 |
| 5 |
Florida Gators
|
0.34 |
| 6 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
-3.06 |
| 7 |
BYU Cougars
|
1.59 |
| 8 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
1.13 |
| 9 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.51 |
| 10 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
2.49 |
| 11 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.00 |
| 12 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
0.00 |
| 13 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
-2.17 |
| 14 |
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
|
-0.80 |
| 15 |
UCF Knights
|
9.92 |
| 16 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
3.85 |
| 17 |
Texas Longhorns
|
1.96 |
| 18 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
|
0.56 |
| 19 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
-2.36 |
| 20 |
USC Trojans
|
-0.37 |
| 21 |
Buffalo Bulls
|
0.00 |
| 22 |
Liberty Flames
|
0.00 |
| 23 |
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
|
-1.01 |
| 24 |
San José State Spartans
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
Colorado Buffaloes
|
-0.72 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Northwestern Wildcats
|
2.62 |
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
|
1.59 |
Total Score: 37.65