Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Dec. 6, 2020, 11:48 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Similar methodology as last week, full table here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FoA3qrDX7UUKU7jFy_F_q-ESiPxHm9sdbvBvV5k6HoM/edit?usp=sharing. One substantive update is that I tweaked the hyperparameters. Previously the margin of victory was capped at having a positive effect at 14 points. After conversation with other pollsters and particularly https://www.bcftoys.com/massey, I've raised the threshold to 28, and reduced the effect of smaller wins. A comparison of the week 13 polls with a threshold of 28 and 14 is in 2 different tabs in the sheet, but I'll probably stick with 28 going forward. The previous years are still shown with a threshold of 14 but may be updated later. All 9 undefeated teams and both 9-1 teams are included, which allowed #47 Colorado, #44 San José State, #33 Louisiana, and #28 Liberty in at the expense of #21 Tulane, #23 Wake Forest, #24 Auburn, and #25 Northwestern. Other teams I didn't rank that might be ranked include #27 Tulsa and #50 NC State. Other teams I ranked that might not be include #16 Wisconsin.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 |
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88.59 |
2 |
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83.44 |
3 |
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81.21 |
4 |
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80.82 |
5 |
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80.47 |
6 |
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80.38 |
7 |
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77.05 |
8 |
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77.01 |
9 |
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76.62 |
10 |
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76.62 |
11 |
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76.45 |
12 |
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76.43 |
13 |
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75.84 |
14 |
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75.13 |
15 |
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74.75 |
16 |
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74.24 |
17 |
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73.51 |
18 |
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73.22 |
19 |
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72.86 |
20 |
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72.48 |
21 |
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71.52 (#22) |
22 |
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70.34 (#28) |
23 |
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69.57 (#33) |
24 |
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67.81 (#44) |
25 |
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67.40 (#47) |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 |
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0.00 |
2 |
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0.54 |
3 |
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0.00 |
4 |
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0.05 |
5 |
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0.34 |
6 |
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-3.06 |
7 |
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1.59 |
8 |
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1.13 |
9 |
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0.51 |
10 |
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2.49 |
11 |
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0.00 |
12 |
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0.00 |
13 |
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-2.17 |
14 |
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-0.80 |
15 |
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9.92 |
16 |
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3.85 |
17 |
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1.96 |
18 |
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0.56 |
19 |
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-2.36 |
20 |
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-0.37 |
21 |
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0.00 |
22 |
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0.00 |
23 |
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-1.01 |
24 |
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0.00 |
25 |
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-0.72 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
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2.62 |
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1.59 |
Total Score: 37.65