Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Dec. 6, 2020, 11:48 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Similar methodology as last week, full table here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FoA3qrDX7UUKU7jFy_F_q-ESiPxHm9sdbvBvV5k6HoM/edit?usp=sharing. One substantive update is that I tweaked the hyperparameters. Previously the margin of victory was capped at having a positive effect at 14 points. After conversation with other pollsters and particularly https://www.bcftoys.com/massey, I've raised the threshold to 28, and reduced the effect of smaller wins. A comparison of the week 13 polls with a threshold of 28 and 14 is in 2 different tabs in the sheet, but I'll probably stick with 28 going forward. The previous years are still shown with a threshold of 14 but may be updated later. All 9 undefeated teams and both 9-1 teams are included, which allowed #47 Colorado, #44 San José State, #33 Louisiana, and #28 Liberty in at the expense of #21 Tulane, #23 Wake Forest, #24 Auburn, and #25 Northwestern. Other teams I didn't rank that might be ranked include #27 Tulsa and #50 NC State. Other teams I ranked that might not be include #16 Wisconsin.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 88.59 |
2 | Clemson Tigers | 83.44 |
3 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 81.21 |
4 | Cincinnati Bearcats | 80.82 |
5 | Florida Gators | 80.47 |
6 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 80.38 |
7 | BYU Cougars | 77.05 |
8 | Oklahoma Sooners | 77.01 |
9 | Georgia Bulldogs | 76.62 |
10 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 76.62 |
11 | Indiana Hoosiers | 76.45 |
12 | Iowa State Cyclones | 76.43 |
13 | Texas A&M Aggies | 75.84 |
14 | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | 75.13 |
15 | UCF Knights | 74.75 |
16 | Wisconsin Badgers | 74.24 |
17 | Texas Longhorns | 73.51 |
18 | North Carolina Tar Heels | 73.22 |
19 | Miami Hurricanes | 72.86 |
20 | USC Trojans | 72.48 |
21 | Buffalo Bulls | 71.52 (#22) |
22 | Liberty Flames | 70.34 (#28) |
23 | Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 69.57 (#33) |
24 | San José State Spartans | 67.81 (#44) |
25 | Colorado Buffaloes | 67.40 (#47) |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.00 |
2 | Clemson Tigers | 0.54 |
3 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.00 |
4 | Cincinnati Bearcats | 0.05 |
5 | Florida Gators | 0.34 |
6 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | -3.06 |
7 | BYU Cougars | 1.59 |
8 | Oklahoma Sooners | 1.13 |
9 | Georgia Bulldogs | 0.51 |
10 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 2.49 |
11 | Indiana Hoosiers | 0.00 |
12 | Iowa State Cyclones | 0.00 |
13 | Texas A&M Aggies | -2.17 |
14 | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | -0.80 |
15 | UCF Knights | 9.92 |
16 | Wisconsin Badgers | 3.85 |
17 | Texas Longhorns | 1.96 |
18 | North Carolina Tar Heels | 0.56 |
19 | Miami Hurricanes | -2.36 |
20 | USC Trojans | -0.37 |
21 | Buffalo Bulls | 0.00 |
22 | Liberty Flames | 0.00 |
23 | Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | -1.01 |
24 | San José State Spartans | 0.00 |
25 | Colorado Buffaloes | -0.72 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
Northwestern Wildcats | 2.62 |
Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 1.59 |
Total Score: 37.65