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crownebeach Ballot for 2020 Week V

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Oct. 5, 2020, 12:57 p.m.

Overall Rationale: I care about how you've played, but I know that the better team frequently loses, so I care about results mostly because of what they tells me about how good you actually are (e.g. whether I would have you favored against the teams above or below you). I use advanced metrics to confirm my opinions, but they were already factored into my preseason poll, so I limit their use to teams that I otherwise haven't watched enough yet.

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide Obviously.
2 Clemson Tigers Looked vulnerable against a UVA team I don't rate that highly -- if Clemson hadn't dominated the turnover battle, that could have become a dogfight. Not seriously sweating it, but closer to No. 3 than No. 1 right now.
3 Wisconsin Badgers See preseason ballot for more Bucky hype. No new comments on Big Ten teams until they play more games.
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Oklahoma State Cowboys Am I too high on the Pokes? Maybe. But their shaky opener looks better now that Tulsa has a quality win, and OSU has to be the Big 12 favorite by a good margin right now.
6 Florida Gators Here mostly because I don't have glaring doubts about Florida, and I have glaring doubts about the rest of the teams on the ballot below.
7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Nothing new to report because of the bye.
8 Oregon Ducks Have dropped a little since the preseason because of opt-outs. Still Pac-12 favorites, but the gap has narrowed.
9 Georgia Bulldogs Might have their quarterback questions answered, but it's also possible that Auburn is just that much worse than I thought. Trending up.
10 Penn State Nittany Lions
11 USC Trojans Didn't lose as much to opt-outs as Oregon, and there's reportedly still hope that Jay Tufele will return to the roster. Arizona State is the only real threat in the South.
12 Tennessee Volunteers This feels like a little too high after last year was just ok, but I think Mizzou is at least a middle-of-the-road team and the Vols just killed them. Tennessee is managing to stand out in a field of teams with similar profiles.
13 BYU Cougars BYU has just looked fantastic. I worry that, like Utah a year ago, they're winning games through physical mismatches and wouldn't hold up against teams with solid blue-chip rosters. But in general, when you obliterate the spread the way they have, you're a New Year's Day bowl contender.
14 Miami Hurricanes I'm still skeptical of the Canes, but they're blasting bad teams, which is what Miami is supposed to do.
15 Cincinnati Bearcats This feels like way, way, way too high in a vacuum, but looking at the P5 teams below them, there's not a lot of competition for this spot.
16 Iowa State Cyclones Losing to ULL was not a great look, but both their wins should hold up and I was high on the Clones in preseason. ISU is showing the ability to scheme its way to results even if Purdy isn't looking amazing.
17 Auburn Tigers Struggling with Kentucky was okay when I thought Kentucky was good, but they're clearly not great after all. Getting killed by Georgia reinforces that I was much too high on the Tigers to start with.
18 Michigan Wolverines
19 Marshall Thundering Herd I do not expect Marshall to lose a game this year. Strong special teams carry over from last season, and the main units look much improved.
20 Texas Longhorns I stood up for Texas all last year. I said they were ahead of schedule and that they were being graded too harshly because the roster was a year away. I'm tired of it and it's time to deliver.
21 UCF Knights Tulsa is no worse than a top-40 opponent after two games, and based on the two-year results, they clearly like something about the matchup with UCF. I had the Knights in the top ten, so I'm clearly still punishing them, but falling out of the AP rankings was a *massive* overreaction.
22 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns It was easier to talk myself into ULL two weeks ago, coming off a high-grade win. Have not played up to standard since then.
23 Oklahoma Sooners I priced a bad loss or two into my projection for Oklahoma -- only two voters in the whole poll were lower on OU than I was in the preseason. But I still don't think you can put together 25 teams in the country that are better than OU.
24 LSU Tigers Not amazing, still good. Learned a little from their blowout of Vandy, but not enough to move them up dramatically.
25 Washington Huskies I don't know what to expect from the teams in this tier, but Washington has been a favorite of advanced metrics for a while. First team out: 26) Northwestern.

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