Ballot Type: Human
Submitted: Oct. 5, 2020, 12:57 p.m.
Overall Rationale: I care about how you've played, but I know that the better team frequently loses, so I care about results mostly because of what they tells me about how good you actually are (e.g. whether I would have you favored against the teams above or below you). I use advanced metrics to confirm my opinions, but they were already factored into my preseason poll, so I limit their use to teams that I otherwise haven't watched enough yet.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | Obviously. |
2 | Clemson Tigers | Looked vulnerable against a UVA team I don't rate that highly -- if Clemson hadn't dominated the turnover battle, that could have become a dogfight. Not seriously sweating it, but closer to No. 3 than No. 1 right now. |
3 | Wisconsin Badgers | See preseason ballot for more Bucky hype. No new comments on Big Ten teams until they play more games. |
4 | Ohio State Buckeyes | |
5 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | Am I too high on the Pokes? Maybe. But their shaky opener looks better now that Tulsa has a quality win, and OSU has to be the Big 12 favorite by a good margin right now. |
6 | Florida Gators | Here mostly because I don't have glaring doubts about Florida, and I have glaring doubts about the rest of the teams on the ballot below. |
7 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | Nothing new to report because of the bye. |
8 | Oregon Ducks | Have dropped a little since the preseason because of opt-outs. Still Pac-12 favorites, but the gap has narrowed. |
9 | Georgia Bulldogs | Might have their quarterback questions answered, but it's also possible that Auburn is just that much worse than I thought. Trending up. |
10 | Penn State Nittany Lions | |
11 | USC Trojans | Didn't lose as much to opt-outs as Oregon, and there's reportedly still hope that Jay Tufele will return to the roster. Arizona State is the only real threat in the South. |
12 | Tennessee Volunteers | This feels like a little too high after last year was just ok, but I think Mizzou is at least a middle-of-the-road team and the Vols just killed them. Tennessee is managing to stand out in a field of teams with similar profiles. |
13 | BYU Cougars | BYU has just looked fantastic. I worry that, like Utah a year ago, they're winning games through physical mismatches and wouldn't hold up against teams with solid blue-chip rosters. But in general, when you obliterate the spread the way they have, you're a New Year's Day bowl contender. |
14 | Miami Hurricanes | I'm still skeptical of the Canes, but they're blasting bad teams, which is what Miami is supposed to do. |
15 | Cincinnati Bearcats | This feels like way, way, way too high in a vacuum, but looking at the P5 teams below them, there's not a lot of competition for this spot. |
16 | Iowa State Cyclones | Losing to ULL was not a great look, but both their wins should hold up and I was high on the Clones in preseason. ISU is showing the ability to scheme its way to results even if Purdy isn't looking amazing. |
17 | Auburn Tigers | Struggling with Kentucky was okay when I thought Kentucky was good, but they're clearly not great after all. Getting killed by Georgia reinforces that I was much too high on the Tigers to start with. |
18 | Michigan Wolverines | |
19 | Marshall Thundering Herd | I do not expect Marshall to lose a game this year. Strong special teams carry over from last season, and the main units look much improved. |
20 | Texas Longhorns | I stood up for Texas all last year. I said they were ahead of schedule and that they were being graded too harshly because the roster was a year away. I'm tired of it and it's time to deliver. |
21 | UCF Knights | Tulsa is no worse than a top-40 opponent after two games, and based on the two-year results, they clearly like something about the matchup with UCF. I had the Knights in the top ten, so I'm clearly still punishing them, but falling out of the AP rankings was a *massive* overreaction. |
22 | Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | It was easier to talk myself into ULL two weeks ago, coming off a high-grade win. Have not played up to standard since then. |
23 | Oklahoma Sooners | I priced a bad loss or two into my projection for Oklahoma -- only two voters in the whole poll were lower on OU than I was in the preseason. But I still don't think you can put together 25 teams in the country that are better than OU. |
24 | LSU Tigers | Not amazing, still good. Learned a little from their blowout of Vandy, but not enough to move them up dramatically. |
25 | Washington Huskies | I don't know what to expect from the teams in this tier, but Washington has been a favorite of advanced metrics for a while. First team out: 26) Northwestern. |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.02 |
2 | Clemson Tigers | 0.00 |
3 | Wisconsin Badgers | 2.02 |
4 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.32 |
5 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | 0.70 |
6 | Florida Gators | 0.00 |
7 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 0.00 |
8 | Oregon Ducks | 0.76 |
9 | Georgia Bulldogs | -2.39 |
10 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 0.01 |
11 | USC Trojans | 5.44 |
12 | Tennessee Volunteers | 0.00 |
13 | BYU Cougars | 0.00 |
14 | Miami Hurricanes | -1.57 |
15 | Cincinnati Bearcats | -0.01 |
16 | Iowa State Cyclones | 0.91 |
17 | Auburn Tigers | 0.00 |
18 | Michigan Wolverines | 0.00 |
19 | Marshall Thundering Herd | 1.05 |
20 | Texas Longhorns | 0.13 |
21 | UCF Knights | 1.08 |
22 | Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 0.00 |
23 | Oklahoma Sooners | 1.99 |
24 | LSU Tigers | -0.22 |
25 | Washington Huskies | 0.00 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
North Carolina Tar Heels | 3.52 |
SMU Mustangs | 1.28 |
Virginia Tech Hokies | 1.30 |
Texas A&M Aggies | 0.19 |
Minnesota Golden Gophers | 0.06 |
Total Score: 24.95