Ballot Type: Human
Submitted: Oct. 5, 2020, 12:57 p.m.
Overall Rationale: I care about how you've played, but I know that the better team frequently loses, so I care about results mostly because of what they tells me about how good you actually are (e.g. whether I would have you favored against the teams above or below you). I use advanced metrics to confirm my opinions, but they were already factored into my preseason poll, so I limit their use to teams that I otherwise haven't watched enough yet.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
Obviously. |
| 2 |
Clemson Tigers
|
Looked vulnerable against a UVA team I don't rate that highly -- if Clemson hadn't dominated the turnover battle, that could have become a dogfight. Not seriously sweating it, but closer to No. 3 than No. 1 right now. |
| 3 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
See preseason ballot for more Bucky hype. No new comments on Big Ten teams until they play more games. |
| 4 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
|
| 5 |
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
Am I too high on the Pokes? Maybe. But their shaky opener looks better now that Tulsa has a quality win, and OSU has to be the Big 12 favorite by a good margin right now. |
| 6 |
Florida Gators
|
Here mostly because I don't have glaring doubts about Florida, and I have glaring doubts about the rest of the teams on the ballot below. |
| 7 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
Nothing new to report because of the bye. |
| 8 |
Oregon Ducks
|
Have dropped a little since the preseason because of opt-outs. Still Pac-12 favorites, but the gap has narrowed. |
| 9 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
Might have their quarterback questions answered, but it's also possible that Auburn is just that much worse than I thought. Trending up. |
| 10 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
|
| 11 |
USC Trojans
|
Didn't lose as much to opt-outs as Oregon, and there's reportedly still hope that Jay Tufele will return to the roster. Arizona State is the only real threat in the South. |
| 12 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
This feels like a little too high after last year was just ok, but I think Mizzou is at least a middle-of-the-road team and the Vols just killed them. Tennessee is managing to stand out in a field of teams with similar profiles. |
| 13 |
BYU Cougars
|
BYU has just looked fantastic. I worry that, like Utah a year ago, they're winning games through physical mismatches and wouldn't hold up against teams with solid blue-chip rosters. But in general, when you obliterate the spread the way they have, you're a New Year's Day bowl contender. |
| 14 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
I'm still skeptical of the Canes, but they're blasting bad teams, which is what Miami is supposed to do. |
| 15 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
This feels like way, way, way too high in a vacuum, but looking at the P5 teams below them, there's not a lot of competition for this spot. |
| 16 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
Losing to ULL was not a great look, but both their wins should hold up and I was high on the Clones in preseason. ISU is showing the ability to scheme its way to results even if Purdy isn't looking amazing. |
| 17 |
Auburn Tigers
|
Struggling with Kentucky was okay when I thought Kentucky was good, but they're clearly not great after all. Getting killed by Georgia reinforces that I was much too high on the Tigers to start with. |
| 18 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
|
| 19 |
Marshall Thundering Herd
|
I do not expect Marshall to lose a game this year. Strong special teams carry over from last season, and the main units look much improved. |
| 20 |
Texas Longhorns
|
I stood up for Texas all last year. I said they were ahead of schedule and that they were being graded too harshly because the roster was a year away. I'm tired of it and it's time to deliver. |
| 21 |
UCF Knights
|
Tulsa is no worse than a top-40 opponent after two games, and based on the two-year results, they clearly like something about the matchup with UCF. I had the Knights in the top ten, so I'm clearly still punishing them, but falling out of the AP rankings was a *massive* overreaction. |
| 22 |
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
|
It was easier to talk myself into ULL two weeks ago, coming off a high-grade win. Have not played up to standard since then. |
| 23 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
I priced a bad loss or two into my projection for Oklahoma -- only two voters in the whole poll were lower on OU than I was in the preseason. But I still don't think you can put together 25 teams in the country that are better than OU. |
| 24 |
LSU Tigers
|
Not amazing, still good. Learned a little from their blowout of Vandy, but not enough to move them up dramatically. |
| 25 |
Washington Huskies
|
I don't know what to expect from the teams in this tier, but Washington has been a favorite of advanced metrics for a while. First team out: 26) Northwestern. |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.02 |
| 2 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
2.02 |
| 4 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.32 |
| 5 |
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
0.70 |
| 6 |
Florida Gators
|
0.00 |
| 7 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.76 |
| 9 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
-2.39 |
| 10 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.01 |
| 11 |
USC Trojans
|
5.44 |
| 12 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.00 |
| 13 |
BYU Cougars
|
0.00 |
| 14 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
-1.57 |
| 15 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
-0.01 |
| 16 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
0.91 |
| 17 |
Auburn Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.00 |
| 19 |
Marshall Thundering Herd
|
1.05 |
| 20 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.13 |
| 21 |
UCF Knights
|
1.08 |
| 22 |
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
|
0.00 |
| 23 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
1.99 |
| 24 |
LSU Tigers
|
-0.22 |
| 25 |
Washington Huskies
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
North Carolina Tar Heels
|
3.52 |
SMU Mustangs
|
1.28 |
Virginia Tech Hokies
|
1.30 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.19 |
Minnesota Golden Gophers
|
0.06 |
Total Score: 24.95