Back to poll results >>

TheFlyingBoat Ballot for 2019 Week 16 & Bowls

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Dec. 10, 2019, 5:23 a.m.

Overall Rationale: I generally follow same criteria as the CFP, but I generally view resumes as more comparable which results in more use of the tiebreakers set out by the CFP regarding things like H2H, conference championships, etc. I also favorably evaluate the winning of a division to a lesser extent to minimize the risk of punishing teams that play against better competition in CCGs as a result of their own success. It is generally the least important of the tiebreakers, generally up there with common opponents which is used infrequently unless there is a clear delta without non-easily dismissible reasons justifying that delta (i.e. a rivalry game can be used to justify the delta as can adverse weather, among other things).

Rank Team Reason
1 LSU Tigers Best resume of any team and they dominated Georgia in impressive fashion. Joe Burrow is certainly your Heisman winner. Chase and Jefferson are elite and CEH is a dangerous back when he is invariably not given his due attention. Aranda commands a defense that deserves significant respect, but one that is not invincible.
2 Ohio State Buckeyes Dominant and just barely shy of the best resume. JK Dobbins, Fields (Heisman finalist), and a potent WR corps create a fearsome offense coupled with Heisman finalist Chase Young on defense should create significant issues for most teams. That being said, I don't see their defense looking as invincible as one (especially Big 10 fans) might expect in these playoffs.
3 Clemson Tigers Your 3rd undefeated team dominated their schedule as well. The only issue is it looks closer to a schedule UCF may have played than one a P5 champion would have. Granted it's still better than UCF's by a fair margin and they certainly handled their schedule better than UCF did, but they do not have any real argument to deserve the 1 or 2 seed based on their performance this year up to this point and even if they were to win it wouldn't change that fact (them losing wouldn't change anything either). Etienne is somehow under respected by the rest of the CFB world due to his low volume and poor opposition, but his ypc is still insane. I also expect Lawrence and his WR corps to return to perform against elite competition far closer to what we saw last year than at the beginning of this year. They have no ranked wins in this poll (ranking Virginia is insane, they are around 45 in the S&P+, have lost to Louisville, and have no quality wins) which almost made me vault OU ahead of them, but Clemson gets the benefit of going undefeated which results in a slightly better SoR for them than OU.
4 Oklahoma Sooners Jalen Hurts is not a great quarterback. If you expect him to bail OU out with his arm like Kyler or Baker or many other great QBs around the country have you will be sorely disappointed. That being said Grinch has the best defense OU has ever had and with Lincoln Riley as head coach their offense will never not be incredible. Good wins over Baylor (2x), OkSt, Kansas St, Texas, TCU, and Iowa St (all top 40 S&P+ teams).
5 Baylor Bears 2 phenomenal performances against Oklahoma and undefeated otherwise is the story of the Baylor Bears with 5 wins over S&P+ top 40 teams and two quality losses against OU with both going to OT and both showing a strong capable defense that held back a potent Lincoln Riley offense.
6 Oregon Ducks Oregon absolutely humiliated Utah on the field this week behind a strong offensive showing by Verdell and some decent play by Herbert.More important was the defense which just smothered the life out of Utah's O. Has solid wins against Utah and USC.
7 Georgia Bulldogs Georgia has two bad losses, one a humiliating beatdown by the best team in the country and one a humiliating, albeit close loss to a mediocre SCAR. That being said they have some of the best wins in the country which keeps them from tumbling any further.
8 Wisconsin Badgers WHY?!?!?!?!?! YOU HAD THEM! A tale of two halves ends in remarkably disappointing fashion, but a great reward as they go to the Rose Bowl. JT23 is the best RB in football arguably and he showed why early. Their D is also high flying and fast to the ball. I think hey'll give Oregon a good game.
9 Florida Gators They managed to do so in the least pretty fashion possible, but they are 10-2 with some good wins. To 9 they go. Remarkable recovery after loss of Feleipe Franks (could be argued it was addition via subtraction, but hey, that's the game) takes them to a bowl that isn't against Michigan.
10 Penn State Nittany Lions Their QB isn't good but they do have some nice wins against teams like Michigan and a close loss to Minnesota and Iowa
11 Utah Utes No ranked wins and a rough loss sends Utah to 11 despite a great coaching staff including brilliant DC Morgan Scalley, a potent defense, and a normally satisfactory and efficient offense.
12 Auburn Tigers How do you solve a problem like Auburn?How do you catch a cloud and pin it down?How do you find a word that means Auburn?A flibbertijibbet! A will-o'-the wisp! A Malzahn!
13 Alabama Crimson Tide What's Alabama's best win? You tell me. Very similar to Utah except that Utah won their division and Auburn is ahead of Bama due to H2H with the better wins making the extra loss comparable to Bama's weak schedule with one fewer loss.
14 Michigan Wolverines Their offense has improved significantly as the season progressed but there was no getting past Ohio St. The matchup could go from very bad to very good for Michigan depending who in the game stays or goes. 
15 Memphis Tigers Congrats to Memphis on winning the AAC. They have had a fantastic season and it sucks to see Norvell go.
16 Iowa Hawkeyes Close games for losses but great wins over Iowa St, Minnesota, and close losses to Michigan, Oenn St, and Wisconsin suggest Iowa is a great team. Ferentz has coached em up well.
17 Minnesota Golden Gophers Minnesota has a great win over Penn St and looked good in other wins. Unfortunately a blowout loss to Wisconsin plus less to prop them upcauses them to tumble despite me being a little more resolute the previous week about not letting them freefall.
18 Notre Dame Fighting Irish The loss in value of their wins and losses as the season progressed caused ND to stagnate in this ranking. Do not be surprised if Iowa St beats them.
19 Boise State Broncos Boise St is like a well oiled machine and Harsin has it running very well.
20 Appalachian State Mountaineers Didn't watch too much of them, but I do know I wanted Eliah Drinkwitz to be OC/offensive position coach for us.
21 Cincinnati Bearcats While they got blown out by Ohio St (who wouldn't?) they are actually a really good team and have the ability compete if given resources.
22 Navy Midshipmen Go Navy Beat Army
23 USC Trojans FIRE HELTON. ACTUALLY, DON'T WE WANT HIM TO STAY.
24 Oklahoma State Cowboys Without Tylan Wallace this team feels like a shell of itself. Hopefully Chubba is ready to run a lot, because he'll be expected to a lot against A&M in the knockoff RRS.
25 Iowa State Cyclones A very close loss they should have won against Iowa if not for one of the most ridiculous ends of game ever. They also lost to Baylor AND OU by a combined 3. They also perform well against top 40 S&P+ teams. Very underrated imo

Back to poll results >>