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ryumast3r Ballot for 2019 Week 16 & Bowls

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Dec. 9, 2019, 12:04 a.m.

Overall Rationale: I took the BROHM methodology from u/factorialite but with a few minor changes. The way BROHM works is I have assigned P5 teams 150 points to start, G5 teams 100 points, FCS Playoff (last year) teams 75 points and all other FCS teams 50 points. For each game, a team contributes half of its points into the game pool (so if a P5 team starts against another P5 team they each contribute 75 points). Then, they take out points based on their Pythagorean share in that game (PointsFOR^2/(PointsFOR^2+PointsAGAINST^2)). This way, it's possible for a "bad" team to play a "good" team close and ultimately win points despite losing the game. Alternatively, it is possible for a "good" team to win a game and ultimately lose points to a "bad" team by not beating them by enough. Lastly, unless there is something wrong with my inputs, I don't change the poll during the middle of the year, so as to provide stability in my rankings. Year-to-year I make modifications as I see the need for them throughout the year.Changes for next year: Reducing recency-bias and "reactiveness" by changing the number of points each team brings into the game, as well as having it iterate through the season several dozen times (or until change within a poll is small). Current testbed is: Instead of 50% of a team's points being brought into the game, working with 1/4th of the points. This still allows "bad" teams to win by playing close ("quality loss") while not over-rewarding teams who only lose close games (a la Washington). This is still not perfect and I will continue to mess with it this summer, but it does get closer to what the consensus (AP, coaches, cfp) is, doesn't include ASU or Texas, while including teams like appalachian state.

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