Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Dec. 9, 2019, 9:40 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Probabilistic model that uses Bayesian inference on a team's results to assign a probability of a team's rating given all their results to date. No information outside of the current season is used. Only scores of games and home/away locations are used. No games against FCS opponents are counted. It is seeded from 0 each week and then iterated until ratings stabilize, so past weeks' results are reevaluated from the perspective of the current week. Numerical scores for each team represent how many points above or below average they are. Subtract scores to get an estimated spread between two teams, with 4 points give to the home team.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	42.4
2	LSU Tigers	32.8
3	Clemson Tigers	32.3
4	Alabama Crimson Tide	29.2
5	Wisconsin Badgers	26.9
6	Oklahoma Sooners	25.2
7	Oregon Ducks	24.9
8	Utah Utes	24.3
9	Auburn Tigers	24.1
10	Georgia Bulldogs	22.7 but they smell like butt
11	Penn State Nittany Lions	21.9
12	Florida Gators	21.7
13	Michigan Wolverines	21.0
14	Baylor Bears	20.9
15	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	18.8
16	Iowa State Cyclones	18.5
17	Memphis Tigers	16.0
18	Texas Longhorns	15.6
19	Iowa Hawkeyes	15.5
20	Washington Huskies	15.0
21	Minnesota Golden Gophers	14.5
22	UCF Knights	13.9
23	Navy Midshipmen	13.7
24	Oklahoma State Cowboys	13.6
25	Kansas State Wildcats	13.5

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.04
2	LSU Tigers	0.00
3	Clemson Tigers	0.00
4	Alabama Crimson Tide	1.30
5	Wisconsin Badgers	0.90
6	Oklahoma Sooners	-0.82
7	Oregon Ducks	0.00
8	Utah Utes	0.51
9	Auburn Tigers	0.14
10	Georgia Bulldogs	-1.04
11	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
12	Florida Gators	-0.15
13	Michigan Wolverines	0.31
14	Baylor Bears	-0.65
15	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
16	Iowa State Cyclones	8.99
17	Memphis Tigers	-0.08
18	Texas Longhorns	7.09
19	Iowa Hawkeyes	0.00
20	Washington Huskies	4.98
21	Minnesota Golden Gophers	-0.81
22	UCF Knights	2.93
23	Navy Midshipmen	0.00
24	Oklahoma State Cowboys	0.26
25	Kansas State Wildcats	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Boise State Broncos	1.72
Appalachian State Mountaineers	1.25
Cincinnati Bearcats	0.86
USC Trojans	0.30
Air Force Falcons	0.38
SMU Mustangs	0.07

Total Score: 35.60