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boonamobile Ballot for 2019 Week 16 & Bowls

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Dec. 8, 2019, 8:01 p.m.

Overall Rationale: This is a resume-based computer poll that factors in relative performance of teams against each other, adjusting the value of any given win or loss throughout the season as we learn more about each team; i.e., wins that seem significant early in the season will change in value over time if the losing team turns out to be much worse than expected. Running the algorithm on last year's games returned a very reasonable result, so I am confident the rankings will make more sense as time passes and the model has more data. Because of that, the early season polls will be subject to substantial variation and, likely, some controversy. This year I have expanded the algorithm to individually track every D1 team, both FCS and FBS, in order to better account for the quality of wins and losses in FBS vs FCS games. I am also now including in my algorithm the relative offensive and defensive performances of teams in terms of points scored and points allowed, in addition to last year's emphasis on margin of victory/defeat, winning%, opponents' winning %, and opponents' opponents' winning %. Wins and losses are also weighted based on the each team's status as a P5, G5, or FCS program.

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