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stripes361 Ballot for 2019 Week 15

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Dec. 3, 2019, 9:46 a.m.

Overall Rationale: This is a forward-looking, predictive ballot. It is not a resume ranking. I start with an aggregate of the FPI and SP+ computer rankings and then adjust the teams based off of several "human" factors, including coaching, QB play, roster balance, eye test, and injuries. Because it is forward-looking, long-term injuries can significantly alter a team's ranking even before on-field performance has been affected.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes I was all geared up to talk about how, once again, Ohio State's domination of a highly ranked conference opponent is yet more proof that they are the unequivocal #1. Then LSU went out and put up a comprehensive performance against Texas A&M, with its defense giving up under 200 yards and only 12 first downs to the Aggies. I'll keep the Buckeyes at #1, where I've had them for most of the season, but give LSU's defense the break they earned on the field.
2 LSU Tigers LSU moves up one spot. This totally isn't just a kneejerk reaction that will come back to haunt me in the Playoff.
3 Clemson Tigers Clemson had a great performance against South Carolina. They did not "drop a spot" this week so much as LSU jumped them. But the computers still think that Clemson is one of the top two teams in the country alongside Ohio State.
4 Georgia Bulldogs
5 Florida Gators My placement of Florida at #5 drew questions last week so a couple notes: 1) FPI has them ranked 7th, behind my current Top 4, Alabama, and Auburn. Obviously, the ranking of Florida above Alabama and Auburn isn't the controversial part. They have an FPI edge on the other serious contenders for the #5 spot. SP+ does have Utah and Oklahoma higher but I've deferred to FPI on this one. 2) Coaching and QB play are big factors for me and I am very high on both for UF, especially with Dan Mullen. I'd give them the slight edge over Baylor in those departments and think they're at least even with if not above Utah as well. 3) Balance. The team most people probably want to see here would be the Sooners, who have the best overall computer rating of the other popular contenders (OU, Utah, Baylor) and the coaching and QB play to stack up to the Gators. The issue is that OU's defense is ranked outside the Top 40 by both FPI and SP+, whereas Florida has both a Top 15 offense and Top 15 defense in both. In tight races between teams, I like to err on the side of the more balanced team.
6 Utah Utes Same reasoning here. Utah has both a Top 10 offense and a Top 10 defense in both FPI and SP+ team efficiency ratings. Only Ohio State, Clemson, and Alabama can say the same. There are some arguments to be made for OU above Alabama (as there are always bound to be when comparing teams in the same tier of performance and accomplishment) but Utah stacks up well enough across the board that I'm willing to slot them ahead of the Sooners for the moment.
7 Oklahoma Sooners
8 Wisconsin Badgers
9 Alabama Crimson Tide
10 Baylor Bears Baylor jumps Penn State, Michigan, Oregon, and Minnesota after all four had underwhelming performances. I don't necessarily "place stock" into a blowout of Kansas, but I do put stock in taking care of business and not disappointing. I've mentioned before that teams in this range of the rankings are closely bunched together enough that big movements can still happen and Baylor has taken advantage.
11 Auburn Tigers
12 Penn State Nittany Lions
13 Oregon Ducks
14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
15 Michigan Wolverines
16 Minnesota Golden Gophers Since we are at the end of the regular season, I want to go over a list of the teams I have gotten the most criticism for "underranking" or not ranking this year. *Army*: Army finished 5-7 and their best win came against 4-8 UTSA. 1-0 *Maryland*: The Terrapins flamed out after their Week 2 win over Syracuse. 2-0 *North Carolina*: While UNC did impress at times and are clearly a solid team, I think their 6-6 overall record and 4-4 ACC mark clearly fell short of deserving a Top 25 ranking. Their close wins inevitably became close losses over time and the pendulum of public opinion violently swung back. 3-0 *Texas*: I kept Texas in the 15-20 range when most other pollsters had them somewhere in the Top 10 following their epic quality loss to LSU. They have since fallen far from the Top 10. 4-0 *Cal*: Cal came back to earth after a 4-0 start but it's unfair to bring this up without mentioning that they lost QB Chase Garbers to injury. He came back late in the year to lead the Bears to close wins over Pac-12 bottom feeders Stanford and UCLA, which would have led to a continued stalemate over how to interpret those results. Unfortunately, we'll never know how they would have fared against Oregon, Utah, and USC without him (he played briefly against USC before needing to leave again) so we'll have to call this a draw. 4-0-1 *Arizona State*: At 7-5 with a win over Oregon, the Sun Devils are clearly a good team, but still a notch below Top 25. 5-0-1 *Wake*: Wake has settled into an 8-4 record in a weak P5 conference and ended the season on a disappointing note, losing to Syracuse by giving up a defensive TD in overtime. I doubt anyone has them ranked anymore. Another team like UNC that pulled out some close wins against questionable competition and ultimately reverted to the mean. 6-0-1 *SMU*: SMU does not have a bad loss and sport a gaudy 10-2 record but most voters will probably agree they are a borderline Top 25 team, with some voters including them and some excluding them. I'm going to call this one a draw. 6-0-2 *Memphis*: Memphis has become the most dominant P5 team, proving themselves against tough competition. 6-1-2 *App State*: The competition has been a bit underwhelming but they've dominated the last few games and wrapped up a stellar season at 11-1. Looking very likely to end the season ranked unless they flame out in the CCG and bowl game. 6-2-2 *Indiana*: Indiana has come back to earth, finishing 8-4 and just barely escaping Purdue the week after being blown out by Michigan. 7-2-2 *Baylor*: Baylor has continued to excel and my ranking has consistently trailed their results. 7-3-2 *Minnesota*: I have had Minnesota in the mid-to-high teens for a while now and they were at #13 on my ballot last week. They only drop three spots after a blowout loss to Wisconsin because, frankly, I expected Wisconsin to be the better team so the result did not deviate far from my predicted outcome. The consensus ranking of Minnesota is likely to settle in much closer to where I have had them for over a month now. 8-3-2 ... Overall, it seems that I have about an 8-3-2 record in my primary feuds with the Reddit body politic this year. This makes me feel pretty good about sticking to my guns and trusting the data over the selectively framed human arguments (including my own, which is why I resort to eye test less often than I would prefer.)
17 Memphis Tigers
18 Iowa Hawkeyes Iowa has some close wins against average teams but its only losses are by one score to Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin. Their fans must hate the stress but they deserve credit for a 9-3 campaign in which they never looked outmatched.
19 USC Trojans
20 UCF Knights
21 Boise State Broncos
22 Appalachian State Mountaineers
23 Texas A&M Aggies 17th in FPI and 21st in SP+. Three of their four losses are against consensus Top 4 teams and all five are against teams in my Top 11. Meanwhile, they have very few wins that would be considered as "quality" by P5 standards but actually stack up favorably with teams like App State and Boise. There's an argument to be made that the top G5 teams would be 7-5 against A&M's schedule and that A&M could have gone 10-2 or 11-1 against theirs. In fact, their Strength of Records (a resume evaluator) are very similar. 11-1 Memphis, 10-2 Cincinnati, 11-1 Boise, 11-1 App State, and 9-2 Navy fill in the 18-22 spots while A&M's is a robust 23. 10-2 SMU at 25th and 10-2 Air Force at 26th actually trail A&M, as does 10-2 Louisiana at 30th. While my ballot is not resume-based, and therefore I normally don't reference Strength of Record or other resume rankings, it's a useful illustration of how difficult it can be to compare these teams based on wildly different schedules and results.
24 Cincinnati Bearcats
25 Oklahoma State Cowboys This last one was a tough selection, as the margin between #25 and the next handful of teams is razor thin. Honorable Mention: Kansas State, Iowa State, SMU, Air Force, Navy, Washington, Texas, Louisiana

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