Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Dec. 3, 2019, 6:54 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Probabilistic model that uses Bayesian inference on a team's results to assign a probability of a team's rating given all their results to date. No information outside of the current season is used. Only scores of games and home/away locations are used. No games against FCS opponents are counted. It is seeded from 0 each week and then iterated until ratings stabilize, so past weeks' results are reevaluated from the perspective of the current week. Numerical scores for each team represent how many points above or below average they are. Subtract scores to get an estimated spread between two teams, with 4 points give to the home team.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	42.5
2	LSU Tigers	31.3
3	Clemson Tigers	30.9
4	Alabama Crimson Tide	29.2
5	Wisconsin Badgers	26.9
6	Utah Utes	26.5
7	Oklahoma Sooners	25.2
8	Georgia Bulldogs	24.5
9	Auburn Tigers	24.1
10	Oregon Ducks	23.2
11	Penn State Nittany Lions	22.0
12	Florida Gators	22.0
13	Baylor Bears	21.3
14	Michigan Wolverines	21.1
15	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	19.3
16	Iowa State Cyclones	18.7
17	Memphis Tigers	16.7
18	Texas Longhorns	15.7
19	Iowa Hawkeyes	15.5
20	Washington Huskies	15.3
21	Minnesota Golden Gophers	14.6
22	Navy Midshipmen	14.0
23	UCF Knights	13.8
24	Oklahoma State Cowboys	13.8
25	Kansas State Wildcats	13.7

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.00
2	LSU Tigers	0.00
3	Clemson Tigers	0.00
4	Alabama Crimson Tide	1.43
5	Wisconsin Badgers	1.25
6	Utah Utes	0.00
7	Oklahoma Sooners	-0.47
8	Georgia Bulldogs	-2.09
9	Auburn Tigers	0.27
10	Oregon Ducks	0.45
11	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
12	Florida Gators	-0.43
13	Baylor Bears	-1.11
14	Michigan Wolverines	0.17
15	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
16	Iowa State Cyclones	9.07
17	Memphis Tigers	0.00
18	Texas Longhorns	7.13
19	Iowa Hawkeyes	0.00
20	Washington Huskies	5.05
21	Minnesota Golden Gophers	-1.24
22	Navy Midshipmen	0.00
23	UCF Knights	1.99
24	Oklahoma State Cowboys	0.83
25	Kansas State Wildcats	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Boise State Broncos	1.73
Appalachian State Mountaineers	1.23
Cincinnati Bearcats	1.11
Virginia Cavaliers	0.60
Air Force Falcons	0.30
USC Trojans	0.16

Total Score: 38.10