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crownebeach Ballot for 2019 Week 15

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Dec. 3, 2019, 4:50 a.m.

Overall Rationale: I try to adjust for luck and identify your underlying squad quality. Rate stats (per play, per drive) and margin stats (total scoring, per play) are super useful. Team talent and coaching and stuff like that matters, which is why I fill out a human ballot rather than strictly plugging your rate stats into a mathematical model. If you ask questions like "but what's their best win?," this is not the ballot for you.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes I am not arguing about this.
2 Clemson Tigers Top five on both sides of the ball. You couldn't pay me to take UVA on the money line. Just saying.
3 LSU Tigers Exorcised some demons on A&M. Should be in the playoff even with a loss to UGA, although it would be just like the committee to take a known quantity in Oklahoma over a deserving one-loss LSU.
4 Utah Utes Utah is one of the four best teams, but I'm not so sure about one of the four most *deserving* teams. Need to root for a narrow Baylor win. (As an aside, can you imagine if this week's conf. title game was on campus??)
5 Georgia Bulldogs A part of me wants Georgia to pitch a shutout this weekend. Like, just to see the consternation from media types who started fading UGA in September.
6 Alabama Crimson Tide The Tide outgained Auburn by 150 yards. Auburn's Bill C. win expectancy was just *6%*. What a weird game.
7 Oklahoma Sooners Got a little lucky with turnovers, but looked generally improved. Can always count on Bedlam as a get-right game.
8 Auburn Tigers Extend Gus forever.
9 Oregon Ducks There's, like, a 90% chance that Oregon plays in the Rose. I'd take that if you offered it to me at the start of the year.
10 Wisconsin Badgers The offense grades out as extremely efficient, which...disagrees quite a bit with my assessment of them, but they've also looked very matchup-dependent. I don't think Wisconsin would get the Rose Bowl berth if they lose the B1G title game, so the Badgers have a lot to play for.
11 Penn State Nittany Lions Early-season Penn State makes an appearance! Lions messed around with a bad Rutgers team before turning on the jets. Ultimate fate probably depends on Wisconsin.
12 Florida Gators Legit playoff contenders are above Florida. Teams with major flaws are below Florida. Then there's Florida.
13 Michigan Wolverines Gave Ohio State a good effort in the first half, but kicking the field goal to go into the break was pretty damn stupid and you know it, Harbs.
14 Memphis Tigers Memphis has been the class of the G5 for at least a month. The offense is a known quantity, but ESPN grades the Tigers out as the No. 2 special teams unit in the nation.
15 Baylor Bears Kansas showed some "Old Kansas" traits, but Baylor played four quarters of football, and that hasn't been a given for them. I don't think the Bears are win-and-in, given the strength of Utah and Georgia -- I would be interested to see how they play against a team that controls the line of scrimmage.
16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Stanford made it interesting for a while, but Notre Dame has been reliably killing the teams they're supposed to kill, and they didn't pass up any opportunity to extend their margins in this one. 
17 Minnesota Golden Gophers This is a huge drop for Minnesota, but the Gophers didn't look at all competitive this week, and their schedule lost some residual luster with Penn State and Iowa also looking a little shady. It feels like you don't know what you'll get out of Minnie in any given week.
18 USC Trojans I really did have a high degree of confidence that Clay was safe at 8-4. I wonder if the stage of the recruiting cycle will play a part in whether he keeps his job.
19 Boise State Broncos Didn't actually play great against a bad Colorado State, but I know what they can do when they're rolling. Should be prohibitive favorites over a competent Hawaii.
20 UCF Knights Consult about the last six weeks of ballots if you want to know why I still have the Knights this high. They're fine!
21 Oklahoma State Cowboys Didn't play that badly from a total yardage standpoint. The offense in the first half moved the ball well and just got stupid in key moments -- in the second half, they went into a shell and it was pretty ugly. I miss watching Taylor Cornelius, like, a lot.
22 Cincinnati Bearcats Gave Memphis a reasonable fight, and if not for a long kickoff return, could have been in to win it on the final drive. I think they'll be at least a touchdown dog again in the conference title game, but UC might be a good moneyline pick; Memphis is not going to be able to recycle gameplans.
23 Iowa Hawkeyes Nebraska looked a lot better the last two weeks, so I'm not stressed about a close ballgame. What I am stressed about is the prospect of ever watching Brian Ferentz coach any offense, anywhere, ever again.
24 Air Force Falcons Air Force, the academy you care about least, is also the most fun to watch this year (offensive efficiency: 23rd). The Falcons weren't *that* far out of G5 bid contention this year.
25 Kansas State Wildcats The Big 12 schedule is really, really deep. That's far and away the best argument for Oklahoma or Baylor in the playoff -- this is a meat grinder. (First team out is still #9WINDIANA)

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