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stripes361 Ballot for 2019 Week 13

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Nov. 17, 2019, 7:43 p.m.

Overall Rationale: This is a forward-looking, predictive ballot. It is not a resume ranking. I start with an aggregate of the FPI and SP+ computer rankings and then adjust the teams based off of several "human" factors, including coaching, QB play, roster balance, eye test, and injuries. Because it is forward-looking, long-term injuries can significantly alter a team's ranking even before on-field performance has been affected.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes
2 Clemson Tigers Clemson is peaking at the right time and is Top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, something that LSU cannot say. Jump one spot to #2 after LSU's defense had yet another poor performance this week against Ole Miss.
3 LSU Tigers LSU easily has the most impressive resume in the country, but not the most impressive or well-rounded performances. The relatively poor defense is going to hurt them in the Playoff.
4 Georgia Bulldogs I'm pretty down on Auburn at this point, so a 7 point win doesn't jump off the page to me, but the Dawgs did take a 21-point 4th quarter road lead on one of the season's biggest computer darlings. Georgia should coast into the SECCG at 11-1 with full control of their CFP destiny.
5 Oregon Ducks
6 Florida Gators
7 Oklahoma Sooners
8 Alabama Crimson Tide With Tua out for the season, Alabama are no longer a legitimate Playoff team. The Crimson Tide may have fallen further if Penn State didn't have their own struggle against an Indiana team I've never been high on.
9 Penn State Nittany Lions
10 Utah Utes
11 Wisconsin Badgers
12 Michigan Wolverines
13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
14 Minnesota Golden Gophers Minnesota only drop two spots in my poll after a close road loss to Iowa. FPI (where their rating went up this week) actually has Iowa ranked one spot ahead of the Gophers but I still rate Minnesota's body of work above the Hawkeyes' now that they've proven their mettle two straight weeks against good competition.
15 Baylor Bears
16 Iowa State Cyclones My eye test loves the Cyclones but a 2-point home win against a Texas team that I don't rate too highly isn't a great way to hold off Michigan or Notre Dame teams beloved by the computers. With the "Win and you must go up, lose and you must go down significantly" approach that most human pollsters take, it's ironic that the public perception of Iowa State and where they should be ranked comes down to one field goal taken by their kicker in one game. A singular make or miss in any other context would barely have any impact on our rating of a team and yet because it came on the last play of the game it may have meant a difference of 10 spots for Iowa State in the polls. I try to avoid that sort of overweighting of individual plays and so the Wolverines, Irish, and Bears leapfrog Iowa State this week.
17 Iowa Hawkeyes
18 Texas A&M Aggies
19 Auburn Tigers Normally I don't drop teams too far for close losses to top teams but I'm making an exception this week. Really, Auburn has been lower in my eye test than where I've ranked them all season but I've kept them high because of the computers. However, this team is just too unbalanced. Until the offense can show some competency in high-leverage situations (not out-of-reach 4th quarter games) I am keeping them lower than their stats would suggest (11th in both FPI and SP+).
20 Memphis Tigers
21 Washington Huskies
22 Oklahoma State Cowboys
23 UCF Knights
24 Cincinnati Bearcats Cincinnati drops a spot after a close call against South Florida.
25 USC Trojans SMU drops out of the poll after a close call at home against ECU. Gaudy record with a lot of close wins against weak competition. They need a convincing performance against Navy next week to jump back in. Meanwhile, USC is hitting their stride down the backstretch of the season, winning 4 of the last 5 including an impressive 3 in a row on the road. This may have more to do with the quality of their opposition than a true rejuvenation but a 41-17 dismantling at Cal is the most impressive game they've played besides Utah.

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