Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 17, 2019, 3:25 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Probabilistic model that uses Bayesian inference on a team's results to assign a probability of a team's rating given all their results to date. No information outside of the current season is used. Only scores of games and home/away locations are used. No games against FCS opponents are counted. It is seeded from 0 each week and then iterated until ratings stabilize, so past weeks' results are reevaluated from the perspective of the current week. Numerical scores for each team represent how many points above or below average they are. Subtract scores to get an estimated spread between two teams, with 4 points give to the home team.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	43.1
2	Clemson Tigers	30.2
3	LSU Tigers	29.9
4	Alabama Crimson Tide	29.2
5	Utah Utes	27.0
6	Wisconsin Badgers	26.4
7	Oregon Ducks	25.7
8	Oklahoma Sooners	25.2
9	Penn State Nittany Lions	24.5
10	Georgia Bulldogs	23.9
11	Auburn Tigers	23.2
12	Florida Gators	22.0
13	Michigan Wolverines	21.5
14	Iowa State Cyclones	21.3
15	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	18.2
16	Iowa Hawkeyes	17.3
17	Baylor Bears	17.0
18	Washington Huskies	16.6
19	Minnesota Golden Gophers	16.1
20	Texas Longhorns	15.3
21	UCF Knights	15.2
22	Oklahoma State Cowboys	15.0
23	Memphis Tigers	14.1
24	Navy Midshipmen	13.8
25	TCU Horned Frogs	13.0

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.13
2	Clemson Tigers	0.12
3	LSU Tigers	-0.88
4	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.40
5	Utah Utes	0.44
6	Wisconsin Badgers	2.41
7	Oregon Ducks	0.00
8	Oklahoma Sooners	0.00
9	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
10	Georgia Bulldogs	-2.61
11	Auburn Tigers	1.15
12	Florida Gators	0.00
13	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
14	Iowa State Cyclones	7.62
15	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
16	Iowa Hawkeyes	0.33
17	Baylor Bears	-0.87
18	Washington Huskies	6.86
19	Minnesota Golden Gophers	-1.89
20	Texas Longhorns	5.14
21	UCF Knights	4.08
22	Oklahoma State Cowboys	0.00
23	Memphis Tigers	-1.47
24	Navy Midshipmen	0.77
25	TCU Horned Frogs	0.23

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Cincinnati Bearcats	2.19
Boise State Broncos	1.43
SMU Mustangs	1.25
Appalachian State Mountaineers	0.62
Texas A&M Aggies	0.09

Total Score: 42.98