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crownebeach Ballot for 2019 Week 13

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Nov. 18, 2019, 2:26 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Think of this as me trying to give the teams a 40-99 rating in NCAA Football 20. I try to adjust for luck and identify your underlying squad quality. Rate stats (per play, per drive) and margin stats (total scoring, per play) are super useful. Team talent and coaching and stuff like that matters, which is why I fill out a human ballot rather than strictly plugging your rate stats into a mathematical model.  Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn about your resume.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes Ohio State's season high in points allowed is 21 (x2): Florida Atlantic on 8/31, and Rutgers on Saturday. Someone meme that for me.
2 Clemson Tigers I'm just going to use this space to link to some #CoastalChaos math. https://www.thekeyplay.com/content/2019/november/16/32-coastal-division-scenarios-remain
3 LSU Tigers I had been talking up the LSU run defense, which I thought was pretty good despite some struggles in downfield coverage. Then they gave up 400 rush yards at 9.1/carry to Ole Miss. (Related: Arkansas should really seriously consider Rich Rodriguez for their head coaching vacancy.)
4 Utah Utes It has been 51 days and counting since the Utah Utes conceded a touchdown at home. Not a typo.
5 Alabama Crimson Tide I *assume* Alabama is still good enough to compete with Auburn and win, but starting a true soph QB with <100 career pass attempts against a top-10 team on the road? I just really don't know.
6 Georgia Bulldogs Won a tough road game with defense. Again. 2019 Georgia is what Alabama looked like five or six years ago.
7 Oregon Ducks Kayvon Thibodeaux is ahead of schedule. We knew he could rush the passer, but he's taken a big step forward as an every-down lineman in the absence of Gus Cumberlander. This is a fun team on both lines.
8 Penn State Nittany Lions Penn State is in the "great, but still squeaking by teams they should probably handle" category. Win and in.
9 Florida Gators Missouri is streaky and probably not that good, but they had previously been undefeated at home, and Florida just killed them.
10 Auburn Tigers Auburn belongs somewhere between 7th and 12th. Your guess is as good as mine exactly where.
11 Minnesota Golden Gophers I had pretty much priced in one more loss to the Gophers' ranking last week. No change.
12 Oklahoma Sooners Again, no change. I still expect Oklahoma will probably lose another game  -- they had some disastrous turnover luck, but Baylor also closed up shop with 14:00 in the third quarter, and that wouldn't happen again.
13 Wisconsin Badgers I learned nothing from this game. No change.
14 Michigan Wolverines Fade me for thinking Sparty was going to be a division contender. I'm not in the "Michigan is the second-best team in the conference" camp yet, but Ohio State winning in two weeks isn't a 100% sure thing anymore, which is nice.
15 Memphis Tigers The best team in the American has to figure out how to beat the second-best team in the American in two consecutive weeks to actually win the conference, which is Exhibit A in "why conference championship games should be consigned to the planes of Oblivion."
16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Copy-paste from last week: "Say what you want about Notre Dame in 2019, but they murder the teams they're supposed to murder."
17 Baylor Bears Baylor blew its prove-it week something fierce. This defense is really, really good and hung around with OU like we really haven't seen anyone do all year, but the OL is garbage and the offense in general has a lot of quit in it. Oklahoma would have to lose out to prevent a rematch.
18 Oklahoma State Cowboys The Ok State-to-the-Big-XII-title-game train lost a little steam this week. If Baylor could have sealed the deal on OU, the Pokes would have controlled their own destiny, but now they need help they're not likely to get from TCU in Norman.
19 Indiana Hoosiers Indiana is unranked solely to give GameDay social cover for picking Columbus over Bloomington. #9WINDIANA is coming. Bet on it.
20 Boise State Broncos Yeah, sure, it was New Mexico, but Jaylon Henderson is so much better than Chase Cord that you have to wonder how Cord won the backup job anyway.
21 Washington Huskies Idle. Should beat the crap out of Colorado; if they can't manage that, even I won't be able to defend them anymore.
22 Iowa State Cyclones From last week: "I mean...at some point Iowa State has to win one of these, right?" Ask a question, get an answer.
23 UCF Knights /bye/ don't @ me
24 Iowa Hawkeyes Home win against a top-10 team? Check! 
25 USC Trojans USC is 7-4 against the 8th-toughest schedule in the country. Their FPI adj. win-loss record is 9.2-1.8. They're not the USC of old, but they're not bad either.

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