Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 18, 2019, 10:57 a.m.

Overall Rationale: To prevent the bottom of the rankings from being dominated by teams from chaotic conferences, adding a requirement for at least a 0.666 record or better. Will be removed after thing are more leveled out. A team has previously exceed 30% chance to win the national title (though no longer true as the team over dropped below). National title probability will be used before playoff percentage.  Teams will be ranked by national championship probability for all teams with above a 5% probability. Next, ranked by probability of making the playoffs based on 538's predictive model until teams are below 5% then switches to ranking by Conference champ probability among teams tracked on 538's playoff predictor otherwise no G5 teams will show up. If there still aren't enough teams before conference champ probability falls below 10%, strength of record of the remaining teams is used to rank them.This helps better capture NY6 probability after playoffs become unrealistic/longshot goals for some teams. Additionally, as strength of record is one of the best predictors of CFP ranking, it helps reflect what the CFP values toward the bottom of the list.New rule going forward:

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Clemson Tigers	National Champion: 29%
2	Ohio State Buckeyes	National Champion: 25%
3	LSU Tigers	National Champion: 17%
4	Georgia Bulldogs	National Champion: 9%
5	Oklahoma Sooners	National Champion: 5%
6	Oregon Ducks	National Champion: 5%
7	Utah Utes	Playoff: 26%
8	Penn State Nittany Lions	Playoff: 13%
9	Alabama Crimson Tide	Playoff: 12%
10	Boise State Broncos	Conference: 56%
11	Cincinnati Bearcats	Conference: 50%
12	Appalachian State Mountaineers	Conference: 43%
13	Memphis Tigers	Conference: 31%
14	Baylor Bears	Conference: 29%
15	Wisconsin Badgers	Conference: 13%
16	Florida Gators	SoR: #7
17	Auburn Tigers	SoR: #12
18	Michigan Wolverines	SoR: #13
19	Minnesota Golden Gophers	SoR: #14
20	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	SoR: #17
21	Iowa Hawkeyes	SoR: #18
22	SMU Mustangs	SoR: #19
23	Texas A&M Aggies	SoR: #20
24	Indiana Hoosiers	SoR: #25 (#21-#23 already ranked, #24 USC did not meet record requirement)
25	Navy Midshipmen	SoR: #26 (First team out: Oklahoma State)

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Clemson Tigers	1.12
2	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.00
3	LSU Tigers	-0.88
4	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
5	Oklahoma Sooners	0.54
6	Oregon Ducks	0.00
7	Utah Utes	0.00
8	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
9	Alabama Crimson Tide	-0.53
10	Boise State Broncos	2.42
11	Cincinnati Bearcats	1.27
12	Appalachian State Mountaineers	2.62
13	Memphis Tigers	0.75
14	Baylor Bears	0.00
15	Wisconsin Badgers	0.00
16	Florida Gators	-0.95
17	Auburn Tigers	0.00
18	Michigan Wolverines	-1.24
19	Minnesota Golden Gophers	-1.89
20	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-1.18
21	Iowa Hawkeyes	0.00
22	SMU Mustangs	0.00
23	Texas A&M Aggies	0.00
24	Indiana Hoosiers	0.14
25	Navy Midshipmen	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Oklahoma State Cowboys	0.71

Total Score: 16.23