Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 5, 2019, 6:42 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Probabilistic model that uses Bayesian inference on a team's results to assign a probability of a team's rating given all their results to date. No information outside of the current season is used. Only scores of games (with MoV capped at 35) and home/away locations are used. No games against FCS opponents are counted. It is seeded from 0 each week and then iterated until ratings stabilize, so past weeks' results are reevaluated from the perspective of the current week. Numerical scores for each team represent how many points above or below average they are. Subtract scores to get an estimated spread between two teams, with 4 points give to the home team.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	37.8
2	Alabama Crimson Tide	27.6
3	LSU Tigers	27.1
4	Oklahoma Sooners	26.4
5	Clemson Tigers	24.9
6	Penn State Nittany Lions	23.7
7	Auburn Tigers	23.4
8	Utah Utes	23.3
9	Wisconsin Badgers	22.9
10	Oregon Ducks	21.7
11	Georgia Bulldogs	18.4
12	Iowa State Cyclones	18.4
13	Florida Gators	17.7
14	Navy Midshipmen	17.1
15	UCF Knights	16.8
16	Michigan Wolverines	16.2
17	Washington Huskies	14.8
18	Iowa Hawkeyes	14.7
19	Oklahoma State Cowboys	14.5
20	Minnesota Golden Gophers	14.4
21	Memphis Tigers	14.2
22	TCU Horned Frogs	14.1
23	Texas Longhorns	13.9
24	Kansas State Wildcats	13.8
25	Baylor Bears	13.3

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.12
2	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.05
3	LSU Tigers	-0.24
4	Oklahoma Sooners	1.22
5	Clemson Tigers	-0.16
6	Penn State Nittany Lions	-0.57
7	Auburn Tigers	1.24
8	Utah Utes	0.00
9	Wisconsin Badgers	1.33
10	Oregon Ducks	-0.79
11	Georgia Bulldogs	-1.24
12	Iowa State Cyclones	12.88
13	Florida Gators	0.00
14	Navy Midshipmen	2.14
15	UCF Knights	5.43
16	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
17	Washington Huskies	7.89
18	Iowa Hawkeyes	0.00
19	Oklahoma State Cowboys	5.92
20	Minnesota Golden Gophers	-2.07
21	Memphis Tigers	-0.27
22	TCU Horned Frogs	3.23
23	Texas Longhorns	1.85
24	Kansas State Wildcats	-0.25
25	Baylor Bears	-4.07

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Cincinnati Bearcats	1.61
Notre Dame Fighting Irish	1.70
Wake Forest Demon Deacons	0.97
Boise State Broncos	0.84
SMU Mustangs	0.70
San Diego State Aztecs	0.02

Total Score: 58.79