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crownebeach Ballot for 2019 Week 10

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Oct. 27, 2019, 9:08 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Think of this as an "if team X played all the teams below them, they'd have a winning record" ranking. I don't necessarily care if you lost last week, as long as I can construct a theory of why you lost that's consistent with your other results to date. If you lose because you lose five fumbles, I'll be nicer to you than if you lose because you gave up a million yards. I really like yards per play stats. Not really based on head-to-head results; where I can use other means to tiebreak teams, I will.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes Outgaining their opponents by 3.6 yards/play. Outscoring their opponents by 40.4 points/game. This is the best team in the country, and Ohio State's conference win odds are up to almost 75%.
2 Clemson Tigers There's nothing wrong with Clemson. Quit trying to wish flaws into existence.
3 Alabama Crimson Tide
4 LSU Tigers Took care of business. Had some issues with situational playcalling, but moved the ball easily in the open field and their defense schooled a freshman quarterback. My biggest concern was how they'd defend the pass, and they did great here.
5 Penn State Nittany Lions Took care of the ball in a bad-weather game. PSU got the benefit of a few lucky turnover bounces, but this was one of their worst performances of the season and they still won by three touchdowns, so no serious criticisms.
6 Auburn Tigers Gave LSU fits in short-yardage (0-2 on 4th down) and held a top-5 offense to its lowest output of the season. I refuse to dock a team for losing by three, on the road, to a higher-ranked team. Auburn's SoS is No. 2, and their strength of record is No. 8.
7 Utah Utes FPI Offense rank: 8. Defense rank: 5. Average scoring margin: 9. Yikes.
8 Oklahoma Sooners Oklahoma really only lost this week because they gave up two turnovers, but more concerning is that they only ran for 3.9/carry. Far and away their worst ground performance of the year -- just a bad matchup?
9 Oregon Ducks I really liked Oregon's matchup with Wazzu, but the Ducks didn't tackle well or contain yards after the catch. With the disclaimer that Troy Dye didn't play, the defense has taken a step back after a strong month or so and needs to readjust.
10 Florida Gators /bye week/
11 Georgia Bulldogs /bye week/
12 Wisconsin Badgers Am I supposed to pretend Wisconsin is bad now? Ohio State has made a lot of teams look silly, and will probably continue to do so. If this were a resume ranking, Bucky would be a lot lower, but there's still a 10% chance they win out per FPI.
13 Baylor Bears /bye week/
14 Michigan Wolverines The scoreline exaggerates things a little bit -- Notre Dame definitely quit once it became obvious the game wasn't winnable -- but Michigan was in total control from the opening kick. The Harbaugh era is alive and kicking.
15 Minnesota Golden Gophers Proving that not everyone in Big Ten country is allergic to offense. #GiveGoldyGameDay
16 Cincinnati Bearcats Up four spots without playing a game! Losing to Ohio State is looking more and more respectable, and a lot of teams in front of UC fell flat on their faces.
17 Notre Dame Fighting Irish I have no idea, man. Defense still pretty good. Passing game still pretty nightmarish. Everything else somewhere in between.
18 Iowa Hawkeyes Iowa's probably pretty good. I'm not exactly sure how good, but "not bad" is good enough for a ranking in the teens.
19 Memphis Tigers Memphis is hit-or-miss, but when they're rolling they have serious upside. I wanted to have them higher, but I just don't know from week to week which version of the Fightin' Norvells is going to show up.
20 Washington Huskies Like Iowa, moved up by being demonstrably "not bad." The most likely single scenario is losing to Utah, then winning out to finish 8-4.
21 UCF Knights Finally, an old-fashioned UCF blasting. Win-out probability: 53.8%.
22 Iowa State Cyclones I can't get a read on Iowa State. I retracted my ballot three times trying to figure out how to iron out the Iowa St/Oklahoma St/K-St situation, and there is no right answer, so I'm going with the one that didn't get blown out by Baylor. There are a lot of Big 12 teams between, like, 25-40.
23 SMU Mustangs It's well known but bears repeating that the American is actually pretty awesome this year. SMU didn't play all that well this week, but in a weeknight game on the road with some bad weather, I get it.
24 Indiana Hoosiers Does it still count as #9WINDIANA if they get it in a bowl game? Because seriously, nine wins is totally on the menu rn.
25 USC Trojans Please don't beat Oregon please don't beat Oregon please don't beat Oregon please don't beat Oregon please don't beat Oregon

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