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BosskOnASegway Ballot for 2019 Week 10

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 28, 2019, 10:14 a.m.

Overall Rationale: To prevent the bottom of the rankings from being dominated by teams from chaotic conferences (specifically the AAC), adding a requirement for at least a 0.666 record or better. Will be removed after thing are more leveled out.Ranked by probability of making the playoffs based on 538's predictive model until teams are below 5% then switches to ranking by Conference champ probability among teams tracked on 538's playoff predictor otherwise no G5 teams will show up. If there still aren't enough teams before conference champ probability falls below 10%, strength of record of the remaining teams is used to rank them.  This helps better capture NY6 probability after playoffs become unrealistic/longshot goals for some teams. Additionally, as strength of record is one of the best predictors of CFP ranking, it helps reflect what the CFP values toward the bottom of the list.New rule going forward:  Once a team exceed 30% chance to win the national title.  National title probability will be used before playoff percentage.

Rank Team Reason
1 Clemson Tigers Playoff: 86%
2 Ohio State Buckeyes Playoff: 64%
3 Alabama Crimson Tide Playoff: 53%
4 LSU Tigers Playoff: 44%
5 Oklahoma Sooners Playoff: 30%
6 Penn State Nittany Lions Playoff: 24%
7 Oregon Ducks Playoff: 23%
8 Georgia Bulldogs Playoff: 16%
9 Baylor Bears Playoff: 15%
10 Utah Utes Playoff: 14%
11 Florida Gators Playoff: 12%
12 Minnesota Golden Gophers Playoff: 6%
13 Boise State Broncos Conference: 51%
14 Cincinnati Bearcats Conference: 49%
15 San Diego State Aztecs Conference: 21%
16 SMU Mustangs Conference: 21%
17 Memphis Tigers Conference: 12%
18 Auburn Tigers SoR: #8
19 Michigan Wolverines SoR: #13
20 Appalachian State Mountaineers SoR: #14
21 Iowa Hawkeyes SoR: #18
22 Notre Dame Fighting Irish SoR: #19
23 Wisconsin Badgers SoR: #20
24 Kansas State Wildcats SoR: #21
25 Indiana Hoosiers SoR: #24

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