BosskOnASegway Ballot for 2019 Week 10
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 28, 2019, 10:14 a.m.
Overall Rationale: To prevent the bottom of the rankings from being dominated by teams from chaotic conferences (specifically the AAC), adding a requirement for at least a 0.666 record or better. Will be removed after thing are more leveled out.Ranked by probability of making the playoffs based on 538's predictive model until teams are below 5% then switches to ranking by Conference champ probability among teams tracked on 538's playoff predictor otherwise no G5 teams will show up. If there still aren't enough teams before conference champ probability falls below 10%, strength of record of the remaining teams is used to rank them.  This helps better capture NY6 probability after playoffs become unrealistic/longshot goals for some teams. Additionally, as strength of record is one of the best predictors of CFP ranking, it helps reflect what the CFP values toward the bottom of the list.New rule going forward:  Once a team exceed 30% chance to win the national title.  National title probability will be used before playoff percentage.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Clemson Tigers
|
Playoff: 86% |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
Playoff: 64% |
| 3 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
Playoff: 53% |
| 4 |
LSU Tigers
|
Playoff: 44% |
| 5 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
Playoff: 30% |
| 6 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
Playoff: 24% |
| 7 |
Oregon Ducks
|
Playoff: 23% |
| 8 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
Playoff: 16% |
| 9 |
Baylor Bears
|
Playoff: 15% |
| 10 |
Utah Utes
|
Playoff: 14% |
| 11 |
Florida Gators
|
Playoff: 12% |
| 12 |
Minnesota Golden Gophers
|
Playoff: 6% |
| 13 |
Boise State Broncos
|
Conference: 51% |
| 14 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
Conference: 49% |
| 15 |
San Diego State Aztecs
|
Conference: 21% |
| 16 |
SMU Mustangs
|
Conference: 21% |
| 17 |
Memphis Tigers
|
Conference: 12% |
| 18 |
Auburn Tigers
|
SoR: #8 |
| 19 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
SoR: #13 |
| 20 |
Appalachian State Mountaineers
|
SoR: #14 |
| 21 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
SoR: #18 |
| 22 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
SoR: #19 |
| 23 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
SoR: #20 |
| 24 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
SoR: #21 |
| 25 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
SoR: #24 |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Clemson Tigers
|
1.75 |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
LSU Tigers
|
-1.20 |
| 5 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
1.16 |
| 6 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
-0.57 |
| 7 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
Baylor Bears
|
0.00 |
| 10 |
Utah Utes
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
Florida Gators
|
-0.47 |
| 12 |
Minnesota Golden Gophers
|
0.00 |
| 13 |
Boise State Broncos
|
1.86 |
| 14 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
0.44 |
| 15 |
San Diego State Aztecs
|
4.63 |
| 16 |
SMU Mustangs
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
Memphis Tigers
|
0.75 |
| 18 |
Auburn Tigers
|
-0.92 |
| 19 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
-0.42 |
| 20 |
Appalachian State Mountaineers
|
0.00 |
| 21 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
0.00 |
| 22 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
-0.23 |
| 23 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
-0.87 |
| 24 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.00 |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons