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crownebeach Ballot for 2019 Week 8

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Oct. 14, 2019, 4:01 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Think of this as an "if team X played all the teams below them, they'd have a winning record" ranking. I don't necessarily care if you lost last week, as long as I can construct a theory of why you lost that's consistent with your other results to date. If you lose because you lose five fumbles, I'll be nicer to you than if you lose because you gave up a million yards; I really like yards per play stats. I move the teams from last week's ballot based on my perceptions of how you played, then use FPI & Sagarin to identify teams I'm mistreating (both high and low).

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Ohio State Buckeyes The Buckeyes are up to No. 1 in every major computer poll except FPI --Sagarin, SP+, Colley Matrix, RoundTable, PiRate. I'm not ready to move them up yet, but Bama had better look the part against Tennessee next week.
3 Clemson Tigers Clemson's defense was just ok; FSU generally killed itself off with turnovers. I'm more interested in the offense, especially on the ground -- run defense is one thing FSU is genuinely quite good at (3.54 opp. yds/rush entering Saturday), and they were still totally helpless to prevent a 6.0 yd/rush, 320-yard performance.
4 LSU Tigers Quality of opposition notwithstanding, LSU and Clemson had very similar weeks. The defense was solid but unspectacular, the passing game was predictably strong, and the running game caught fire against an excellent Florida front.
5 Wisconsin Badgers Statement win -- We saw Wisconsin move the ball effectively against an elite defense, and they did it by throwing. The only remaining question is how Bucky's defense will hold up at (Sagarin No. 1!) Ohio State. I suspect pretty well: FPI has the Badger defense 1st overall, and SP+ 2nd.
6 Oklahoma Sooners I have some qualms about Oklahoma in a playoff context -- they can't really stop the run, and they are way too dependent on CeeDee Lamb for their scoring. With that said, they gave Texas 14 points in silly turnovers and still nearly covered. OU's B-game is better than most teams' A-game.
7 Georgia Bulldogs If Georgia won in OT, you wouldn't be mad at me for having them this high, so I don't want you complaining now. They outgained South Carolina by 200 yards, and they needed some hilarious turnovers to lose. Moved down mostly bc the new OC looks even worse than Cheney in the red zone.
8 Oregon Ducks The thing about multiple defenses is that you need depth to run every formation proficiently, and Oregon has plenty -- the Ducks have *20* different players averaging at least a tackle per game. The best defense west of the Mississippi (3.8 opp. yards/play), and one of the best anywhere, period.
9 Florida Gators Dan Mullen's offense is truly joyful to watch -- creating space, threatening run at the right times, exploiting scoring opportunities -- but the defense was clearly overmatched and looked tired at times. Depth is a concern.
10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish I did not expect to say "Notre Dame won this game because of their offense," but here we are. I think they're missing the put-away pitch they need to be a real playoff contender, but the Irish did what they needed to do and the outcome was only briefly in doubt.
11 Auburn Tigers
12 Utah Utes Saturday in Corvallis wasn't a signature win or anything, but holding Oregon State (SP+ offensive rank: 21) to <3.5 yards/play and one garbage-time touchdown is meaningful. Two straight complete performances for the Utes.
13 Penn State Nittany Lions I'm not sure if Ricky Rahne just freezes up when calling big games, but PSU absolutely could not move the ball -- if two of the Lions' drives hasn't started inside the Iowa 35-yard line, they probably lose this game. This team is too talented to keep stumbling like this, even against good defenses.
14 Baylor Bears The score was pretty much an accurate reflection of how this game went. Brewer makes some really incredible running throws, but he also gets instantly stupid and puts a lot of pressure on his defense to bail him out. This is a risk/reward play.
15 Texas Longhorns Couldn't pass protect; Oklahoma ran relatively vanilla pressures and still just overmatched Texas man-on-man.Some of that is on the OC -- the Longhorns didn't even try to establish the run -- but more of it is on bad communication between the offensive linemen.
16 Boise State Broncos The score is misleading -- the Broncos ran away with this one early and called off the dogs late. Defense very comfortably at the top of the G5.
17 Arizona State Sun Devils ASU has to start making earlier adjustments. This is the second time they've picked the wrong starting alignment on defense and just stuck with it -- this time, the offense came up with a successful final drive, but the Sun Devils' habit of leaving it 'til late is really playing with fire.
18 Missouri Tigers I can't wait to see the memes when Missouri wins the East.
19 Iowa State Cyclones I'm not sure how Iowa State is this good with all the production they lost, but they are. It's a shame they got Oklahoma in Ames last year, because if you want to beat the Sooners this is probably the team to do it.
20 Minnesota Golden Gophers Probably not good enough to challenge for the West, but good enough to beat Iowa or surprise Penn State at home? Sure, why not? They've put away bad teams and cruised in three straight. 
21 Memphis Tigers Lost three fumbles, outgained Temple (overall & per play) on the road, and had their final drive stolen by a truly bizarre overturned completion. A comedy of errors that is going to make their road to the New Year's Six game an uphill battle, but I still think they're the best in the American.
22 Michigan State Spartans Much-needed bye week before Penn State at home. A scuffling Lions QB struggling with confidence, a cold game in East Lansing? Sparty has to win this game, and I still think they will, but it's getting harder to wave the banner.
23 UCF Knights
24 Michigan Wolverines I am almost at the point of calling for Dylan McCaffrey to start. Michigan is not clicking with Patterson taking snaps right now; either he doesn't understand what Gattis is trying to do, or he just doesn't want to do it.
25 Washington Huskies Washington's offense isn't as bad as the fans think; Eason has all kinds of potential, and the OL is quickly getting better. On the flip side, their defense is not as good as they think it is. You can run the ball on the them between the tackles, and there's space to exploit the middle third with the PA pass.

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