Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 15, 2019, 9:12 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Minor change from last week: the bottom of the rankings this week was dominated by teams from chaotic conferences (specifically the AAC), adding a requirement for at least a 0.666 record or better. Will be removed after thing are more leveled out.Ranked by probability of making the playoffs based on 538's predictive model until teams are below 5% then switches to ranking by Conference champ probability among teams tracked on 538's playoff predictor otherwise no G5 teams will show up. If there still aren't enough teams before conference champ probability falls below 10%, strength of record of the remaining teams is used to rank them.  This helps better capture NY6 probability after playoffs become unrealistic/longshot goals for some teams.  Additionally, as strength of record is one of the best predictors of CFP ranking, it helps reflect what the CFP values toward the bottom of the list.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Clemson Tigers	Playoff: 78%
2	Alabama Crimson Tide	Playoff: 57%
3	Oklahoma Sooners	Playoff: 48%
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	Playoff: 47%
5	Wisconsin Badgers	Playoff: 28%
6	LSU Tigers	Playoff: 28%
7	Penn State Nittany Lions	Playoff: 18%
8	Oregon Ducks	Playoff: 14%
9	Georgia Bulldogs	Playoff: 14%
10	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	Playoff: 14%
11	Baylor Bears	Playoff: 8%
12	Utah Utes	Playoff: 8%
13	Auburn Tigers	Playoff: 7%
14	Florida Gators	Playoff: 7%
15	Appalachian State Mountaineers	Conference: 80%
16	Boise State Broncos	Conference: 51%
17	Cincinnati Bearcats	Conference: 44%
18	SMU Mustangs	Conference: 19%
19	Texas Longhorns	Conference: 11%
20	Minnesota Golden Gophers	SoR: 15
21	Michigan Wolverines	SoR: 18
22	Arizona State Sun Devils	SoR: 20
23	Iowa Hawkeyes	SoR: 23
24	Pittsburgh Panthers	SoR: 26
25	Missouri Tigers	SoR: 27

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Clemson Tigers	0.98
2	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
3	Oklahoma Sooners	0.20
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	-0.11
5	Wisconsin Badgers	0.00
6	LSU Tigers	-1.39
7	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
8	Oregon Ducks	0.44
9	Georgia Bulldogs	0.03
10	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
11	Baylor Bears	0.78
12	Utah Utes	0.24
13	Auburn Tigers	-0.20
14	Florida Gators	-0.48
15	Appalachian State Mountaineers	1.01
16	Boise State Broncos	0.00
17	Cincinnati Bearcats	0.83
18	SMU Mustangs	0.00
19	Texas Longhorns	0.00
20	Minnesota Golden Gophers	0.00
21	Michigan Wolverines	-0.43
22	Arizona State Sun Devils	-0.30
23	Iowa Hawkeyes	0.00
24	Pittsburgh Panthers	1.19
25	Missouri Tigers	-0.10

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Washington Huskies	0.05

Total Score: 8.76