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GenialGiant Ballot for 2018 Week 14

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Nov. 26, 2018, 10:05 p.m.

Overall Rationale: I use two models --- one score-based, the other result-based --- to evaluate team strength. All FBS teams are treated as equal to start the season, but this changes as each team plays more games. I average the performance of teams in these two models, creating an aggregate model ranking. I then modify these rankings manually, with a current tolerance of five positions. Currently, teams must be in the top 45 in both models and the top 30 of the aggregate to be ranked. (Computer ranking in parentheses.) First N Out - Stanford (31*), Cincinnati (25), Appalachian State (32*) Notable Absences - Syracuse (35), Army (78), Iowa State (34), Utah State (38)

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide Alabama is far and away the most dominant team this season and they clearly deserve a CFP bid regardless of their performance in Atlanta. (1)
2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Notre Dame has a bit of a weak strength-of-record for an undefeated team, but they are undefeated. (4)
3 Clemson Tigers Clemson faces upset-minded Pitt and will try to keep the Panthers at bay and punch their ticket to the CFP. (6)
4 Georgia Bulldogs Georgia now looks like the strongest one-loss team and is clinging to a playoff spot, though they almost certainly need a win to hold onto it. (5)
5 Ohio State Buckeyes The Buckeyes demolished the Wolverines and can now look to capitalize on a Clemson or Georgia loss. (3)
6 Oklahoma Sooners A grueling shoot-out against West Virginia last week and now a re-match with Texas; what a week for the Sooners. (7)
7 Michigan Wolverines Michigan book-ended their season with losses to good teams, but this one reflects much worse on the team. (2)
8 Washington Huskies The Huskies took care of their in-state rivals and now face a formidable Utah team. (13)
9 Texas Longhorns The Longhorns will look to knock the Sooners out of playoff contention with a second win over Oklahoma. (11)
10 Penn State Nittany Lions Despite the season not going as well as Nittany Lions fans might have wished, Penn State could still end the season with 10 wins, which would be huge for this program. (8)
11 LSU Tigers An incredibly close loss to a good Texas A&M team shouldn't take away from LSU's strong season. (12)
12 Texas A&M Aggies Texas A&M has also had a strong season under first-year coach Fisher and will look to cap it off with a bowl win. (17)
13 Iowa Hawkeyes The Hawkeyes were probably the best team in the B1G West this season, but they weren't able to show it in the one game that mattered. (9)
14 Northwestern Wildcats Northwestern is heading to Indianapolis, where they hope to spoil the playoff hopes of the Buckeyes. (10)
15 UCF Knights My increased restrictions cause the Knights to slip in this poll. (20)
16 Washington State Cougars A rough loss to the Huskies sends the Cougars tumbling. (19)
17 Utah Utes The Utes managed to pull out a win against BYU and will now face Washington for the Pac-12 crown. (18)
18 Florida Gators The Gators demolished rival FSU to keep the Seminoles from bowl eligibility. (23)
19 Missouri Tigers The Tigers have had a season of ups and downs, but it certainly ended on an up. (14)
20 Kentucky Wildcats While it may not be the season they dreamed of, the Wildcats performed admirably, challenging for the SEC East and earning themselves a strong bowl game in the process. (15)
21 Purdue Boilermakers My score-based model loves that Purdue clobbered Ohio State, so here we are. (16)
22 West Virginia Mountaineers West Virginia's offense isn't quite potent enough to make up for their pungent defense, which is never a good situation. (24)
23 Fresno State Bulldogs The Bulldogs have a strong record this season and get another shot at Boise State in the Mountain West title game. (21)
24 Boise State Broncos The Broncos will look to dispatch the Bulldogs for a second time and claim the Mountain West title. (22)
25 Mississippi State Bulldogs The Bulldogs capped off a strong season under first-year coach Moorhead with a convincing win over rival Ole Miss. (27)

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