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f0gax Ballot for 2018 Week 14

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Nov. 25, 2018, 7:52 a.m.

Overall Rationale: My biggest challenge this week was 4,5,6. I did some analysis using my rankings hoping that there would be a clear favorite between Oklahoma, OSU, and UCF. But there wasn't. The only thing that stuck out even a bit was that OU had a common opponent with OSU (TCU) and UCF (FAU). And OU fared better in those games than OSU or UCF. Based on my rankings OU has the best schedule (average ranking 65) then OSU (71) and UCF (77). [Side Note: UNC doesn't figure into UCF's analysis. But if they did it would actually make things worse for UCF.] UCF's average margin was better at 23.6 compared to 17.6 and 17.5 for OSU and OU respectively. By the numbers I think that OU should get the 4 spot. But that defense would get slaughtered by any of the top 3. As I type this I've been talking through it in my head and have re-arranged the teams in the form a few times. I'm going to go with UCF, OSU, OU for now. While OSU has the better schedule, that lose to Purdue is *bad*, and UCF is undefeated. Northwestern and Memphis are 34 and 35 in my rankings - so I should be able to get something out of the CCG results next week that can put some distance between these two. And OU has a chance to say something based on how they handle Texas. In the end, you could probably make a case for any of these three teams for the 4 spot. For now, this is how I see it. 

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