Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Nov. 19, 2018, 11:24 p.m.
Overall Rationale: I use two models --- one score-based, the other result-based --- to evaluate team strength. All FBS teams are treated as equal to start the season, but this changes as each team plays more games. I average the performance of teams in these two models, creating an aggregate model ranking. I then modify these rankings manually, with a current tolerance of 10 positions. Currently, teams must be in the top 55 in both models and the top 35 of the aggregate to be ranked. Next week, I plan to drop this to top 45 in both models and reduce my overall tolerance to 5, meaning teams must be in the top 30 of the aggregate rankings. (Computer ranking in parentheses.) First N Out - Mississippi State (29), Wisconsin (23), Iowa State (34) Notable Absences - Utah State (38), Syracuse (45), Army (64)
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 |
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When arguably your worst game of the season comes in a blowout win over an FCS team, you're having a pretty good year. (2) |
2 |
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The Irish have only one test remaining before an undefeated season and a playoff bid. (3) |
3 |
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Following a bruising game against Indiana, Michigan will face rival Ohio State in a bid to secure a playoff birth. (1) |
4 |
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Clemson is undefeated, but is punished by most of the ACC being sub-par. (4) |
5 |
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Georgia still has a decent shot at the playoffs and will hope to finish the regular season on a high note against rival Georgia Tech. (5) |
6 |
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The Cougars have almost come out of nowhere and are now vying for a playoff spot. (13) |
7 |
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LSU has had a strong season and will look to cap it off with another win. (12) |
8 |
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The Sooners might need a bit of help to make it into the playoffs, but they're going to try to do their part this weekend. (7) |
9 |
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A horrendous win for the Buckeyes has them sitting near the edge of the top 10; they'll certainly need a fair bit of help to make the playoffs even if they win out. (6) |
10 |
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Texas is back.?.?.? (11) |
11 |
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The Knights took care of business and are surging late in the season, though their resume is still lacking. (21) |
12 |
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An ugly win against Rutgers, combined with the poor performance of their losses, drops Penn State some. (8) |
13 |
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The B1G West champions hope to finish out the regular season strong before playing spoiler to the winner of Ohio State-Michigan. (10) |
14 |
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A rough outing for the Mountaineers, on whom my models have quickly soured. (24) |
15 |
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The Hawkeyes utterly dominated Illinois and are a big favorite of my models. (9) |
16 |
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A good season for Utah will see them in the Pac-12 championship. (15) |
17 |
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While Kentucky's season will surely be filled with "what if"s, this was still a great season for this team. (14) |
18 |
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The Huskies have a chance to spoil the playoff hopes of their in-state rival --- what more could a team ask for? (19) |
19 |
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The Aggies have had a rough go of it, but their still a solid team in a tough division. (18) |
20 |
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The Gators are in a similar position to Washington, yet they have the opportunity to snap FSU's bowl streak. (27) |
21 |
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The Broncos took care of business last week and are a strong G5 team (to the surprise of no one). (25) |
22 |
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Missouri's had an up-and-down season, but my models seem to focus on the "up." (17) |
23 |
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The Bulldogs came oh-so-close to being the G5 darlings this season, but they've still had a great season so far. (22) |
24 |
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Pitt has had an eventful season, but they managed to punch their ticket to Charlotte in a turbulent ACC Coastal. (35*) |
25 |
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B1G-time teams make B1G-time plays in B1G-time games. (20) |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 |
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0.00 |
2 |
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0.11 |
3 |
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0.51 |
4 |
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-1.04 |
5 |
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0.00 |
6 |
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0.00 |
7 |
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0.45 |
8 |
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-0.03 |
9 |
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0.00 |
10 |
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0.25 |
11 |
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-0.44 |
12 |
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0.37 |
13 |
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2.10 |
14 |
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0.00 |
15 |
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9.77 |
16 |
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0.00 |
17 |
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0.00 |
18 |
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0.00 |
19 |
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3.48 |
20 |
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-0.77 |
21 |
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0.00 |
22 |
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0.66 |
23 |
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0.00 |
24 |
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0.00 |
25 |
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0.23 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
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2.04 |
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1.04 |
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0.55 |
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0.21 |
Total Score: 24.05