Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Nov. 19, 2018, 6:18 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Top 4 unchanged. The only team I see with any kind of remaining threat is Michigan. Sure Bama could lose to UGA. But unless the Dawgs switch to the triple-option, I doubt that anyone is stopping Bama this year. Should Michigan go down I would put their replacements, in order as American champ UCF, Big 12 champ Oklahoma, Pac-12 champ Wazzu. The "champ" part is important. If these teams don't end up winning their conference then I can't see any of them in the playoff no matter what happens - those would be late losses to better teams. If there's the kind of chaos where Michigan, UCF, OU, and Wazzu all lose once over the next two weeks then anything is possible for that four spot. 

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Alabama Crimson Tide
2	Clemson Tigers
3	Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4	Michigan Wolverines
5	UCF Knights	In my mind the only thing keeping UCF out of the top 4 is their SoS this year. It will get better. But right now I understand not putting them in the tournament - yet. But if, let's say, Michigan falls to Ohio State, Outside of Oklahoma (maybe), I can't see another team that should be in over a two-year undefeated FBS team.
6	Oklahoma Sooners
7	Georgia Bulldogs
8	Washington State Cougars
9	Boise State Broncos
10	LSU Tigers
11	Utah State Aggies
12	Washington Huskies
13	Missouri Tigers
14	Florida Gators
15	Ohio State Buckeyes
16	Utah Utes
17	Penn State Nittany Lions
18	Texas Longhorns
19	Buffalo Bulls
20	Troy Trojans
21	Fresno State Bulldogs
22	West Virginia Mountaineers
23	Army West Point
24	UAB Blazers
25	Syracuse Orange

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
2	Clemson Tigers	0.00
3	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
4	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
5	UCF Knights	0.26
6	Oklahoma Sooners	0.00
7	Georgia Bulldogs	-0.80
8	Washington State Cougars	0.00
9	Boise State Broncos	2.43
10	LSU Tigers	0.00
11	Utah State Aggies	0.23
12	Washington Huskies	0.60
13	Missouri Tigers	5.30
14	Florida Gators	0.00
15	Ohio State Buckeyes	-2.44
16	Utah Utes	0.00
17	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
18	Texas Longhorns	-0.52
19	Buffalo Bulls	5.93
20	Troy Trojans	4.75
21	Fresno State Bulldogs	0.00
22	West Virginia Mountaineers	-3.19
23	Army West Point	0.00
24	UAB Blazers	0.90
25	Syracuse Orange	-0.73

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Kentucky Wildcats	1.39
Northwestern Wildcats	0.53
Mississippi State Bulldogs	0.21
Pittsburgh Panthers	0.15

Total Score: 30.36