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stripes361 Ballot for 2018 Week 10

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Oct. 28, 2018, 9:46 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Performance/team quality ranking, based primarily on ESPN's FPI and Football Outsiders' S&P+ rankings. Not intended to be a resume ranking. Teams moved up and down from their spots in the computer rankings based on eye test, coaching, QB play, and other subjective factors.

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Clemson Tigers
3 Georgia Bulldogs
4 Oklahoma Sooners Flip flopped Oklahoma and Michigan this week based on the Sooners' superiority in FPI and S&P+ as well as their continued propensity for dominant victories. I still don't entirely trust them against top teams.
5 Michigan Wolverines
6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
7 LSU Tigers
8 Ohio State Buckeyes
9 Penn State Nittany Lions
10 Utah Utes Top 10 Mountain Time Zone school! I'm doing it! Helps that the Pullman Pirates are making that quality road loss of theirs look good.
11 Mississippi State Bulldogs I had the #12 most controversial ballot in the Reddit poll last week and my #15 ranking of the Bulldogs was one of the primary reasons. They validated my faith in them with a solid victory over tough-luck aTm.
12 West Virginia Mountaineers The computers loved West Virginia's blowout win over Baylor so I'm jumping them up quite a bit. Still worried about how hit and miss Holgorsen teams are and their propensity in past years for blowout losses (like they suffered against Iowa State). They have every chance to impress this weekend at Texas.
13 Washington Huskies The Huskies are 9th in FPI and 7th in S&P+ so I have actually downgraded them significantly compared to where the metrics have them. Washington is really struggling without Myles Gaskin but should be getting him back this week (which is why I'm keeping them up this high). They have a chance to re-establish themselves against Stanford this week but another offensive disaster could presage long-term troubles for the program.
14 Fresno State Bulldogs Another reason that my ballot was one of the most heterodox last week is because I have had Fresno State ranked since Week 7 and all the way up at 17th last week. Based on the AP Poll released earlier, it seems like public opinion is finally catching up.
15 Florida Gators My expectations for the Gators against the Bulldogs were not high so I have no real reason to drop them based on my criteria.
16 Iowa Hawkeyes Same with the Hawkeyes. Their offense will keep them from being a Top 10 team this season but a 30-24 loss in Happy Valley is perfectly respectable. FPI says they have the 5th most efficient defense in the nation while S&P+ has them at 9th.
17 UCF Knights UCF is a tough one for me. FPI has them down at #31 while S&P+ has them up at #11. Personally, I'm actually more inclined to agree with FPI but the Knights haven't done much to show that they deserve to be downgraded that much. As long as they can keep blowing out inferior teams, I will have them in the Top 20.
18 Utah State Aggies Utah State is another team that, like Fresno State, I ranked earlier than most voters (in this case, starting in Week 8). People are starting to come around on the Mountain West, which I believe to be the strongest G5 conference this year.
19 Washington State Cougars This will likely be my most unpopular placement but I have never rated Oregon or Stanford nearly as much as others. They do have a very close home win against my #10 team but, other, than that, have not had the type of schedule or performances to impress the computers all that much. Huge fan of Gardner Minshew and think he should be in the Heisman talks. Cougars have some dangerous opponents down the stretch and have not wrapped up the Pac-12 North by any means.
20 Auburn Tigers Auburn was my top unranked team from last week and, with all the chaos in the Top 25 last week, are able to slide into the Top 20 without taking the field. Their matchup of computer darlings against aTm this weekend is one of the most intriguing matchups of early November.
21 Texas A&M Aggies The Aggies' loss on Saturday was their first bad loss of the season and only their second poor performance along with their 24-17 win over Arkansas earlier this year. It will be interesting to see whether this refocuses them or starts a downward spiral to end the year.
22 Wisconsin Badgers I'm giving Wisconsin a bit of a break for missing their starting QB in a dispiriting loss to Northwestern this past week but they need to turn it around fast to justify staying up here.
23 Kentucky Wildcats Kentucky dominated my #25 team from last week, on the road, in terms of yardage and first downs but barely squeaked out a controversial win with no time left on the clock. Because of their overall performance and how relatively high I am on Missouri, the Wildcats stay ranked for now. However, their statistical imbalance is really troublesome. FPI has them 63rd nationally in offense while S&P+ has them 109th on offense and 3rd on defense. I am generally very skeptical of one-sided teams and will be ranking Kentucky well below the consensus until they can show some consistency on both sides of the ball.
24 Miami Hurricanes Miami is actually 16th in FPI and 19th in S&P+ but I can't place too much trust in a team which can't even decide on a QB. Hurricanes are only on my radar because of their gaudy computer ratings. I have a feeling that they will be unable to survive back-to-back November road trips to Georgia Tech and VPI.
25 Boise State Broncos Honorable Mention: Texas Tech, Michigan State, Texas, Stanford, Iowa State, Missouri, Georgia Southern

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