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Fmeson Ballot for 2018 Week 10

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 29, 2018, 3:53 p.m.

Overall Rationale: I've made some pretty big changes this week to my algorithm that have improved it's predictive performance a small, but meaningful amount. The issue before was that games with unexpected results could result in huge performance ratings (e.g. Purdue would get an other worldly boost from beating OSU). The new method correctly treats unexpected results, resulting a more accurate predictions based on my benchmarking. With that said, it will probably take a bit of tuning many teams on here have very similar scores that are within the uncertainties of each other. Meaning that the exact ordering is hard to establish. e.g. #9 Iowa's ranking is 2509 +/- 53, while #15 Kentucky is 2471 +/- 52. According to my algorithm, there is a very good chance UK is better than Iowa. One thing is clear however, Bama stands clearly above the rest. 

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