Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Oct. 23, 2018, 8:23 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Performance/team quality ranking, based primarily on ESPN's FPI and Football Outsiders' S&P+ rankings. Not intended to be a resume ranking. Teams moved up and down from their spots in the computer rankings based on eye test, coaching, QB play, and other subjective factors.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | |
2 | Clemson Tigers | Clemson might be the only team in the country that could become a 1(B) to Alabama's 1(A), assuming that Alabama's flawless season doesn't come to an end in Death Valley next weekend. |
3 | Georgia Bulldogs | |
4 | Michigan Wolverines | |
5 | Oklahoma Sooners | |
6 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | I have the Irish slightly overrated compared to their metrics (9th in FPI and 7th in S&P+) at a time when most people are feeling down on this team. Notre Dame had what FPI considers to be their worst performance of the season (even more so than their single-digit win against Ball State) in a 19-14 win against Pitt, meaning that current sentiment has slightly cooled on Brian Kelly's squad. However, they are still #3 in the win-loss driven AP Poll and should stay there late into the season, as a trip to Northwestern may be the closest thing they have to a tough game before closing the season against arch-rival USC. |
7 | LSU Tigers | LSU is only 10th in FPI and 15th in S&P+, so I likely have the Tigers overrated along with the rest of the country. (Interestingly, LSU is 2nd nationally in Strength of Record, so from the point of view of a "resume poll" voter they are actually underrated in the AP Poll.) It's hard to ignore how they've looked at home against Georgia and Mississippi State the past two weeks. Have they really improved or is this just unwarranted recency bias? |
8 | Ohio State Buckeyes | |
9 | Penn State Nittany Lions | |
10 | Washington Huskies | Washington is actually 8th in FPI and 6th in S&P+, so I have them knocked down a couple pegs here. While the Huskies had a legitimately impressive performance in an early-season 21-7 road win at Utah, their close losses to Auburn and Oregon this year are the latest iteration of the general trend where statistically impressive Washington teams can't quite get over the hump against top opponents. This team will need to dominate Stanford or Washington State in order to start changing my mind. |
11 | Florida Gators | |
12 | Texas A&M Aggies | |
13 | Iowa Hawkeyes | |
14 | Wisconsin Badgers | |
15 | Mississippi State Bulldogs | |
16 | Miami Hurricanes | |
17 | Fresno State Bulldogs | |
18 | Utah Utes | |
19 | UCF Knights | |
20 | Texas Longhorns | |
21 | Kentucky Wildcats | |
22 | Utah State Aggies | |
23 | West Virginia Mountaineers | |
24 | Texas Tech Red Raiders | |
25 | Missouri Tigers | Missouri's road win against Purdue keeps getting better and better. Honorable Mention: Auburn, Appalachian State, Stanford |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.00 |
2 | Clemson Tigers | 0.00 |
3 | Georgia Bulldogs | 1.17 |
4 | Michigan Wolverines | 0.00 |
5 | Oklahoma Sooners | 0.64 |
6 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | -0.90 |
7 | LSU Tigers | -0.44 |
8 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.29 |
9 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 1.76 |
10 | Washington Huskies | 1.08 |
11 | Florida Gators | 0.00 |
12 | Texas A&M Aggies | 0.60 |
13 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 0.18 |
14 | Wisconsin Badgers | 1.33 |
15 | Mississippi State Bulldogs | 10.02 |
16 | Miami Hurricanes | 5.98 |
17 | Fresno State Bulldogs | 3.07 |
18 | Utah Utes | 0.58 |
19 | UCF Knights | -1.34 |
20 | Texas Longhorns | -2.72 |
21 | Kentucky Wildcats | -1.20 |
22 | Utah State Aggies | 1.22 |
23 | West Virginia Mountaineers | -1.59 |
24 | Texas Tech Red Raiders | 0.03 |
25 | Missouri Tigers | 0.20 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
Washington State Cougars | 2.64 |
USF Bulls | 0.34 |
Oregon Ducks | 0.91 |
NC State Wolfpack | 0.40 |
Stanford Cardinal | 0.15 |
Appalachian State Mountaineers | 0.14 |
Total Score: 40.92