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GenialGiant Ballot for 2018 Week 9

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Oct. 23, 2018, 12:31 a.m.

Overall Rationale: A lot has changed this week! The first, now relatively minor, point is that I've cut back on the weight I give successive layers of opponent strength in my points model. The second, much larger change, is that I've brought back my wins model from last season. This model uses only the winner (and loser) of a game, not the point totals, to rank teams. After scoring all teams using both metrics, I normalize these scores, average this normalized score across both methods, and rank the teams. The one caveat here is that a team cannot be ranked below 60th in either model to be in the top 40, which, given my tolerance of 15 ranks when constructing my final poll, rules the team out of the top 25. For each team kicked out of the top 40, the next team is added in and given a boost in computer rank for determining final placement. As I'll be unable to watch many games next weekend (#StopFallWeddings2K18), I'll be dropping my tolerance to 10 positions next week, meaning I'll be looking at teams ranked in the top 55 in both polls and in the top 35 of the average. (Computer rankings in parentheses.) First N Out - Auburn (17), Temple (27), Buffalo (19) Notable Exclusions - West Virginia (55), Washington State (47), Oregon (44), USF (74), NC State (42), Appalachian State (58)

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide Alabama remains, quite clearly, the most dominant team in the country. (2)
2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Notre Dame is off to a great start and will look to continue to capitalize on their momentum. (4)
3 Michigan Wolverines With their sole loss to Notre Dame, the Wolverines have impressed this season, and a victory over rival Michigan State helps cement their position here. (1)
4 LSU Tigers LSU is still riding high after the win over Georgia and holds the SEC's second position in the top five. (3)
5 Clemson Tigers Clemson looked very strong in their win over NC State and now seems unstoppable as they roll toward another Atlantic Division title. (8)
6 Florida Gators Florida has looked very strong this season and hopes to continue that trend when they take on Georgia. (7)
7 Georgia Bulldogs Despite their loss to LSU, Georgia is off to a strong start, and a win against rival Florida would certainly help their rebound. (12)
8 Texas Longhorns Off last week, Texas will try to keep their momentum going as they continue to push through their conference slate. (13)
9 Ohio State Buckeyes Ohio State, in classic fashion, lost a game that had no business even being competitive, but their body of work helps them remain in the top 10. (5)
10 Oklahoma Sooners Oklahoma bounced back nicely from a loss to Texas, but now must play catch-up in the Big 12 (11).
11 Kentucky Wildcats Kentucky is off to a strong start and may up challenging for control of the SEC East. (9)
12 Iowa Hawkeyes Outside their loss to Wisconsin, Iowa has looked great this season, with Maryland their latest victims. (6)
13 Penn State Nittany Lions Penn State seems to love losing close games to Ohio State, only realizing later that they could have capitalized on a bad Ohio State loss if they hadn't also lost to Michigan State. (16)
14 Wisconsin Badgers Beating the opponents you need to is an important part of any successful season. (18)
15 Washington Huskies I'm not as impressed with Washington as I might otherwise be, but they're still a very good team. (10)
16 Texas A&M Aggies Win or lose, Texas A&M seems to love always playing it close. (15)
17 Utah Utes The Utes may not be the most glamorous team in college football, but they (usually) get the job done. (21)
18 Stanford Cardinal A pretty solid team, Stanford is the third representative for their conference in the top 25. (20)
19 Fresno State Bulldogs My pick for top G5 team so far, a close loss to Minnesota is all that keeps Fresno State from (minor) stardom. (26)
20 Michigan State Spartans Despite a tough loss to Michigan, Michigan State is still a pretty potent team. (24)
21 Purdue Boilermakers A stunning upset over Ohio State, coupled with the other successes for Purdue throughout the season, leads to their position in the top 25. (14)
22 UCF Knights Yes, UCF is still undefeated, but they're very unpopular with my scoring model (50th) and their weak strength of schedule is hurting them even in my wins model. (37)
23 Cincinnati Bearcats A loss to Temple ends the undefeated dream, but Cincinnati still looks to be a strong team this season. (31)
24 Virginia Cavaliers Despite a slow start to the season, UVA has knocked off a couple pretty serious Coastal contenders and looks good as they move to the back half of the conference schedule. (29)
25 Miami Hurricanes Miami had an extra week to consider their loss to UVA; we'll see on Friday against Boston College how helpful that was. (41*)

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