Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 21, 2018, 1:08 p.m.

Overall Rationale: See last week's ballot for a detailed explanation. TL;DR: Play good teams and win your games by a lot. _______________________________ Major update this week: I added a MoV component. Right now it only considers total MoV against FBS teams. One interesting side effect is that since MoV can be negative, a few of the worst teams' scores have fallen below the FCS placeholder. These include 11 G5 teams and Oregon State. The benefit of adding a MoV component is that now, I can account for the difference between blowing out a team and notching a last-second field goal to go ahead by 1. The downside is that it takes longer for me to update the model every week, and now I have to try to balance it mid-season. ___________________________________ I'd like to make clear the distinction between a hybrid ballot and a computer ballot with model tweaking/balancing. Earlier in the season, when I was in hybrid mode, I tweaked each team's final score individually, independent of any other teams. Now, in computer mode, any balancing tweaks I make affect all teams evenly.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	1665
2	Michigan Wolverines	1377
3	Clemson Tigers	1336
4	LSU Tigers	1270
5	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	1152
6	Ohio State Buckeyes	1082
7	Oklahoma Sooners	1044
8	UCF Knights	1039
9	Florida Gators	931
10	Penn State Nittany Lions	913
11	Georgia Bulldogs	910
12	Texas Longhorns	848
13	Buffalo Bulls	843
14	Kentucky Wildcats	831
15	Iowa Hawkeyes	829
16	USF Bulls	822
17	Army West Point	800
18	Washington Huskies	794
19	Wisconsin Badgers	790
20	UAB Blazers	783
21	Texas A&M Aggies	772
22	Temple Owls	771
23	Washington State Cougars	764
24	Cincinnati Bearcats	762
25	Purdue Boilermakers	761; Next 5 out: Stanford (759), Auburn (747), Fresno State (731), Syracuse (723), Boise State (717)

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
2	Michigan Wolverines	1.11
3	Clemson Tigers	0.00
4	LSU Tigers	0.00
5	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-0.31
6	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.99
7	Oklahoma Sooners	0.00
8	UCF Knights	0.00
9	Florida Gators	0.00
10	Penn State Nittany Lions	1.49
11	Georgia Bulldogs	-0.41
12	Texas Longhorns	-0.33
13	Buffalo Bulls	11.73
14	Kentucky Wildcats	0.00
15	Iowa Hawkeyes	0.00
16	USF Bulls	0.13
17	Army West Point	8.00
18	Washington Huskies	0.00
19	Wisconsin Badgers	0.00
20	UAB Blazers	4.93
21	Texas A&M Aggies	-0.17
22	Temple Owls	3.24
23	Washington State Cougars	-1.79
24	Cincinnati Bearcats	0.84
25	Purdue Boilermakers	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
West Virginia Mountaineers	2.43
Oregon Ducks	0.91
NC State Wolfpack	0.40
Utah Utes	0.55
Stanford Cardinal	0.15
Appalachian State Mountaineers	0.14

Total Score: 40.03