Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Oct. 15, 2018, 8:19 p.m.
Overall Rationale: My computer model this year has provided much more extreme results than last year's version, due largely to its reliance on points instead of wins. This has resulted in many 4-3 teams (and even some 3-3 ones) cracking the top 40. Next week, I might try to average the rankings of the two model types, but I'll cross that bridge when I come to it. Teams must be within 15 positions of their computer rank (parentheses). First N Out - Utah (41) Notable Absences - UCF (67), Oregon (64), NC State (76), Cincinnati (44), USF (108), Washington State (94)
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 |
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Alabama looked almost mortal for a brief period against Missouri, but they quickly the Crimson Tide quickly dispelled that notion en route to yet another win. (3) |
2 |
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Ohio State continues to look good with a strong win over Minnesota. (2) |
3 |
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Notre Dame escaped by the skin of their teeth, but they remain undefeated. (4) |
4 |
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A dominant win over Georgia catapults LSU up the rankings. (5) |
5 |
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Michigan continues to put away opponents, and finds themselves in my top 5. (1) |
6 |
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Texas has had some great performances this year and has rebounded nicely from their opening loss. (6) |
7 |
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Clemson looks good, but not according to my model, likely due to the close win over Syracuse. (22) |
8 |
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A week after their loss to Texas, Oklahoma is still sitting in the top 10. (11) |
9 |
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Florida has looked good this season, with their loss to Kentucky now seeming much less bad. (7) |
10 |
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A rough loss for Georgia, but they're still clinging to a top 10 spot. (8) |
11 |
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Kentucky still has a solid resume and is part of a glut of SEC teams in this range. (12) |
12 |
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Penn State and consecutive heartbreaking losses to Ohio State and Michigan State; name a more iconic duo. (14) |
13 |
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Another loss contributes to Washington's decline in this ballot. (16) |
14 |
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Iowa is looking better and better, though that loss to Wisconsin isn't the best. (10) |
15 |
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Some of the luster has come off Mississippi State over the past few weeks, but they're still looking like a solid team. (30) |
16 |
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Duke seems to be missing from many rankings, despite a solid start to the season and only one (pretty bad) loss. (26) |
17 |
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A few reasonable losses to good teams helps keep Texas A&M afloat. (13) |
18 |
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Michigan State managed to get it done against Penn State and moves back into the top 20. (29) |
19 |
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A tough loss to a good Michigan team pushes Wisconsin down the rankings. (18) |
20 |
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Maryland's win over Texas buoys them mightily. (9) |
21 |
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I wasn't as high on Miami as many others a week ago (in part due to my computer component), but I'm also not as low on them now; a close road loss to a decent team doesn't torpedo Miami's season. (32) |
22 |
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Back-to-back drubbings were not kind to Stanford, but I think they're still a decent team. (37) |
23 |
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The Eagles have actually looked pretty solid this season and narrowly take a spot in the top 25. (38) |
24 |
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My computer model's take on West Virginia hasn't changed, and nor has the tolerance I build in, so West Virginia's rank doesn't change here either. (39) |
25 |
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The only G5 team with no more than one loss in my computer model's top 40, Fresno State has, outside a close loss to Minnesota, looked dominant this season. (27) |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 |
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0.00 |
2 |
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0.00 |
3 |
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0.00 |
4 |
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0.05 |
5 |
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0.16 |
6 |
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0.20 |
7 |
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-1.94 |
8 |
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0.00 |
9 |
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0.00 |
10 |
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0.00 |
11 |
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0.10 |
12 |
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0.80 |
13 |
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0.46 |
14 |
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0.73 |
15 |
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1.94 |
16 |
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3.27 |
17 |
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0.00 |
18 |
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1.25 |
19 |
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0.60 |
20 |
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5.16 |
21 |
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2.33 |
22 |
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0.41 |
23 |
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2.18 |
24 |
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-1.81 |
25 |
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0.00 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
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3.16 |
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2.42 |
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2.15 |
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0.66 |
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0.40 |
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0.35 |
Total Score: 32.50