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Charlemagne42 Ballot for 2018 Week 8

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 14, 2018, 5:27 p.m.

Overall Rationale: It's converged far enough that I'm comfortable using it for my ballot. I still expect I'll probably make the unusual list. For the sake of people who investigate that list, a short description of how it works: In CFB, you are who you beat. Play and beat Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Notre Dame? That's a good resume. Play and beat Oregon State, Rutgers, Kansas, and Illinois? Sorry, get in line for "also receiving votes". I extended this philosophy into a complicated algorithm made up of a lot of simple parts. ____________________________________________ First, all teams are equal until they're shown to be otherwise. In the context of this algorithm, it means it doesn't consider what conference you belong to, whether you're a blue blood, or what your "talent level" is. Results on the field are the best data available to us. Second, team-level statistics are the most useful for evaluating a team. If it sounds like a tautology, that's because it is. The closer in you try to zoom on a team, the more your measurements will be subject to random noise. Because of this, I'll never use any individual statistics, and this iteration of my algorithm doesn't look at offensive statistics, defensive statistics, or even margin of victory. It's all based on wins and who they come against. Third, nothing is set in stone. In week 6, Texas beat currently 5-1 Oklahoma. It boosted them from the edge of the top 25 to immediately top 10. If Oklahoma continues on to a 5-7 mark, Texas will lose credit gradually for that win, and drop in the rankings unless they can assemble more convincing wins. Conversely, if Oklahoma runs the table to end up 14-1, Texas will gain more and more credit for the win, and it will prop them up even should they lose to Oklahoma in the conference championship game. Beyond these three core fundamentals, there are smaller things I consider like whether a team you've played is ranked, what your future schedule looks like, and even a tiny amount of forgiveness for losing to a very good team. (Yes I know the concept of a quality loss is much-maligned on r/CFB, but rest assured the numbers are such that a quality loss is only as good as a mediocre win.) _____________________________________________ TL;DR: Win your games, but root for the teams you beat to win theirs too.

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