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f0gax Ballot for 2017 Week 15 & Bowls

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Dec. 3, 2017, 7:03 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Playoff predictor mode engaged. The is the final ballot before the official final is announced. The top four is all that matters this time around. My top four are who I expect the committee to put in. My order may be wrong, but I'm fairly confident in the group at least.

Rank Team Reason
1 Georgia Bulldogs Avenged the loss to Auburn. UGA is "sort of" undefeated now. Their loss is the best of the group of potential playoff teams.
2 Clemson Tigers One loss ACC champ. They have good wins against quality opponents. I'm on-board with the "starting QB" loss argument as well. 
3 Oklahoma Sooners OU's loss is "better" than Clemson's. But I think the ACC is stronger overall than the Big12. The ACC Atlantic has as many teams at 8 wins or better as does the entire Big 12. But in the end, it doesn't really matter if Clemson/OU are 2/3 or 3/2 - they're still playing each other at a neutral site.
4 Ohio State Buckeyes As expected, this spot is down to OSU and Bama. I've done some resume analysis and it's close. I don't envy the committee. That Iowa loss for OSU is going to be tough. But I think beating Wisconsin for the B1G title more or less cancels that out. The B1G East and SEC West were about even so that's a wash. They both have 11 wins. I think the difference is that OSU's loss to Oklahoma is better than Bama's loss to Auburn. And while a lot of people are focusing on the late season game against Mercer, I think the biggest drag on Bama's resume is FSU. Had FSU not gone down the tubes, this is a much more difficult discussion.
5 Alabama Crimson Tide I won't be surprised one bit if the committee puts Bama in at four. But as noted in the OSU commentary, I don't think they should. That said I'll now attempt to make some counter arguments that could explain why Bama could get in. Again, it goes back to the Iowa loss for OSU. Iowa finished 7-5 and third in their division (B1G West). Alabama's two cross division opponents (Vandy and Tenn) were sixth and seventh in their division. So we can't make an apples-to-apples comparision. Iowa was 7-5 (4-5), the closest conference opponent for Bama was aTm at 7-5 (4-4). On the one hand, Bama beat their "Iowa Equivalent". On the other, Iowa has what appears to be a better resume as compared to aTm (I didn't do a deep dive on this). As it turns out, I still can't find a good on-field reason to put Bama in over Ohio State. When all is said and done, I expect that the decision will come down to what a P5 conference championship means. Is it enough to "cancel out" a bad loss? And based on what I've seen, I think UGA would have beaten Bama in the SECCG. So does the committee talk about that? If so, and if they come to the same conclusion, that should disqualify Bama. Either way, I think the final margin will be razor thin. 
6 UCF Knights Come on committee. Do the Knights a solid.
7 USC Trojans Pac 12 champ gets at least a top 8 slot.
8 Wisconsin Badgers Only one loss.
9 Miami Hurricanes
10 TCU Horned Frogs
11 Auburn Tigers
12 Penn State Nittany Lions
13 Oklahoma State Cowboys
14 LSU Tigers
15 Washington Huskies
16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
17 Virginia Tech Hokies
18 Northwestern Wildcats
19 Michigan State Spartans
20 Boise State Broncos
21 Toledo Rockets
22 Memphis Tigers
23 Stanford Cardinal
24 USF Bulls
25 Army West Point

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